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Things change at the end of the month. I can see warmer, but not extreme heat, yet.

You might take interest in this post, even though it is geared towards the NYC forum. To me it is very interesting as the lack of heat so far this season is rare as bluewave pointed out in his post. true is has been more pronounced further North and West but still rather impressive that we can enjoy more typical Spring days and have had low dew point and cool periods in a sea of warmth this decade. Of note see 2003 and 2014 both cool June months that were part of winters that were cold and snowy I believe. So it can happen but not very often. from @bluewave Only the 6th time in the last 30 years that LGA hasn’t reached 90 degrees by June 15th. Warm season notable cool stats have been few and far between during the 2010’s. So it’s bit of a rarity when we see muted high temperatures like this. Just the 2nd occurrence this decade. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 15 Missing Count 1 2014-06-15 87 0 - 2003-06-15 87 0 3 2019-06-15 89 2 - 2006-06-15 89 0 - 1998-06-15 89 0 - 1990-06-15 89 0

rest of June form the JAMA Weeklies

56 degrees here. Breezy, feels like early October . Leaves on the ground from last night's storm. not a typical looking or feeling mid June morning

Wow - that storm packed a punch, power flickered twice, branches down , driving rain, estimate wind gusts maybe to 35 to 40 mph. I did not see or hear any hail. I was near the Southern edge of the 50 DBZ radar returns, looking North , I would think Newark, DE. got hit harder , also up there the line was wider.

The WAR getting pushed East and South in the coming 7 day period. Next week looks active for waves to effect us with more rainfall. Looking for a good beach day, but hard to choose. Tomorrow will get blinded by flying sand particles. Sunday looks nice but the wave action not so good, seems like a SW wind, was looking for offshore. And not liking the tide cycle , tide going out on the afternoon. Tuesday has potential bebind the wave from Monday , maybe a close WNW or I will take even WSW wind. Magic Seaweed has a few single stars from 9 AM to 3 PM. ) Have to keep a close watch. https://magicseaweed.com/Wildwood-Surf-Report/392/ Look at all that rain again.

Pretty cool spiral cloud bands spinning about.

News to me about days 10 to 16

72 degrees here now with some sun breaking out from time to time. Broke 3 inches here between the last two rain events, pretty crazy ! Grass was looking dry last week but appears to be bouncing back. An excellent fescue grass season in my area so far.

Hmm, I am not sure about that. We have had some cooler summers earlier in the decade. Recent summers have been warm and muggy. I do recall a conversation with bluewave from the NYC forum and it had to do with the warm waters of the Western Atlantic and the recent years where the WAR was very powerful. Also, how summer has lasted well into the Fall the last 5 years. bluewave posted a map of record high temps and without going into a lot of detail when you see these record highs in the summer many of these were along the edge of the WAR over the SE coastline and a bit inland. The morale of the story here is, the warm waters and feedback may be , or is, contributing to longer lasting summers in the East and SE, and summers have been warmer recently.

Looking out in time a muggy, active and stormy pattern will continue for the next couple weeks. Severe weather odds increase again to our West in time and may make it here as well. High dews , sorry to say, are going to pay a visit early next week, but as for extreme heat, or long duration above normal heat, that is nowhere in sight. May have to wait until after July 4 th for an official heat wave IMHO. Will will have a 90 degree, or more day, but not enough strung together to qualify as a true heatwave. So far, the cooler side is winning. ( or the less warm side , whatever floats your boat . Seems rainfall is one main reason for the cooler weather, ( no dry/hot source region to tap ) along with the upstream blocking, the previous long duration -SOI /MJO and the cold pool in the NW Atlantic.

Beyond tomorrow's rainfall event, a signal for yet another significant event early next week, but to our far West. I would monitor as it could trend East more. From the WPC Day 6 and 7

Can't help but think each model has its own obvious strengths and weaknesses, or as some will say reoccurring forecast errors or biases. Over time these biases may be modeled out as the forecast system is upgraded or tweaked. I would think the best course of action is what you see everyday in various NWS forecast discussions, a blend of various models, trends, etc. to get to a forecast. Similiar to as to what the WPC does. We know the rankings of the Euro is pretty high, in terms of verification. I believe the best forecasters understand the various weather models ability to handle different forecast challenges and in tandem creates a forecast that delivers the highest potential of verification by taking everything I mentioned into play.

Has been that long.

@Eskimo Joe is this statement by Maue really true ? A decade behind ?

This really caught my eye, if true, kudos and congrats to the team responsible for this undertaking. I really like us to be able to compete with the guys across the pond. We have many bright minds here in the states, both young and old. Onwards and upwards !

Are you focusing at all on the area of warmth East of Aussie ? Some stated that contributed, and or supported, the robust High Pressure system in the central Pac which in turn how some effected on the WAR over in the Atlantic. I know both you and Tip from the New England forum mentioned the vastness of the warmth in the Pac, but a lack of a single focused warm area as an issue. Comparing it to a warm bathtub, just warmth everywhere and sloshing around. Lastly, the ability to couple the ocean and the atmosphere as Don S and Isotherm mentioned a few times as well.

@bluewave do you think that PDO dip in Jan ( heart of winter ) combined with the +SOI was partly the issue to the warmer weather and delayed pattern change to more robust winter outcomes on the East Coast? (I know there were many explanations ) Seems we ramped up the last 4 months. Nice post !

Simply wow !! Really amazing the turn of the NAO. Just when you thought it was a fairy tale the past 6 weeks show up including the record May and now this incredible ridge. If deep winter wonder the changes in the NAO and the forecasted rise coming up off the deep negative would have provided a HA event and a equally impressive MECS or even greater. Actually I think ity would have.

I read the link and it is indeed pretty cool the key areas they talk about further. So many varied improvements. The part about improving the forecasting of waves is pretty neat and I imagine very high on the list for ocean commerce vessels, cruise ships, etc. and for you @WxWatcher007 a mention about the tropics too <<< Results in the tropics are more mixed, but there are strong improvements for 2-metre temperature. Tropical cyclone forecast skill is neutral overall, with a slight reduction in track error, consistent with improved winds in the tropics. >>

@showmethesnow Did you say phoney ..... ? maybe the weather today is simply the Matrix maybe it is , afterall my dewpoint is 51 and my temp is just 70 at 1:45 PM. A dream world .......

A lot of rain here between 3:00 PM and 7:00 PM, looks like my location over 1.5 inches and some spots near Dover, DE. near 3 inches .

Some sun breaking through right now here and muggy as hell out . Rain gathering to my SW and some heavier showers moving NE across the upper Chessie. Heaviest rain East of Richmond and moving NE as well.

Severe really of the table conus-wide as things have calmed down considerably.

June into July