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I can't be sure, but reading his post, to me at least ,he seems to imply those years he used are the best QBO matches, not his list for the upcoming winter of his best analog matches . I believe he puts out a prelim outlook early Nov.

Cool and informative QBO focused post brought over from 33andrain. Snowy knows a lot . Of course, as he mentions, just one part of the puzzle. . Snowy Hibbo Posted yesterday at 07:11 PM I think I have my QBO analog. All the years that fit my current forecast for +5 to -10 for this season for QBO values at 30mb, minus strong Ninas and Ninos. My QBO forecast for the next year is the red line in this image, courtesy of FU Berlin. Key trends to note: -NAO, deep Greenland high. Massive European trough. Deep troughing around Eastern US. Aleutian ridge. Eastern US pattern driven by NAO. So not exactly the most sturdy idea, but certainly quite a hopeful pattern. Certainly aligns with the current -AAM situation as well, provided that holds into winter. Of course, just one piece of the puzzle.

Warm up late October then a big change possible in early November ..... eye candy and speculation of course on the long range models. Similar time frame to 1995. Again speculation of course. Will be fun to watch.

HM believes it is a full on Modoki , one interesting element is the Modoki back drop combined with the warm GOA and any interaction between them. Good thread here with replies.

Eye opener from HM

Better late than never. This is interesting as well image of above for Sept 2019

Snow cover continues to expand, looking really good so far .

From a met at 33andrain Posted 15 hours ago To piggy-back off of the above posts...The analogs that end up blockiest over the course of the winter have an Aleutian low and Niño-like tropical forcing in the fall. With the recurving Tyhpoon (coincident with a strong East Asian Mountain Torque) shocking the extra-tropics into a higher AAM/more El Niño-like regime, snow cover advance over Asia supporting continued descending Siberian highs/mountain torques through the fall, and strong sub-surface warming in the central Pacific recently, it looks good at this point for a blocky winter IMO.

This is a great thread to read. Really does seem things are coming together for a Modoki Nino .

This will be interesting to track in the months ahead. I know several mets who are very interested in the QBO and the impact it may have on the upcoming winter.

Heard this has to do with the recurving typhoon and this time the West chills and snows and the reaction in the East is building warmth. I read , as you know , you don't always get a trough in the East just because there is a recurving West Pac typhoon.

Going along with Webb's post above, and this post by Ben, the general look over Western Canada and the NW US should really put down some snow cover. Meanwhile things up North should really start to chill in the weeks ahead, as a reservoir of cold air develops due to the consolidating PV.

Looking at the West Pac and how the typhoon plays out, I like this post by Webb . If correct, this set up plays into a warm ending for October overall along the East Coast and then the potential for a flip further down the line in November if you roll things forward. Many seem to think recurving typhoons are a lock for a trough in the East but the latitude and general extratropical transition are key pieces to consider.

This is preseason training for the Euro as far as I am concerned. If it handles this set up correctly I will feel more confident about the Euro's forecasts regarding cyclogenesis in the winter months ahead. Go Euro !

Such as saying climo temps and snowfall for the winter ahead, thinking of going climo and then adding some additional warmth is a safe bet. Extreme snowfall forecasts are so hard to come by lately. However, so tempting to find the weather holy grail and being the only met to forecast out of consensus cold and snow. A fine line between hype and reality.

Ventrice ECM prediction ......seems warm always wins out, however, a significant averaged -SOI in Sept yields a very warm October . So there you go.

That makes sense, I believe I mentioned in previous posts that the summer -NAO average means little for the upcoming winter. However, to say the next winter will have a positive averaged NAO just because the last 8 winters did is not a sound enough reason for me. Thanks for your post.

@bluewave does this feature, the Newfoundland block and its circulation at the surface, contribute to any significant SST adjustments up there off NE Canada? Does it reinforce any cold pool and /or possibly aide in the typical - NAO sea surface pattern that some believe support a semi-seasonal -NAO ?

Rather impressive to say the least

In regards to this post by Ben I don't see the logic. I see persistence of the last 8 winter with an averaged + NAO , but to use that as reasoning/support that this winter will have a another +NAO , eh, not so sure. I like Dave's response as a counter . From Dave

A little more on the IOD. I agree it is an important driver but some years with a very positive IOD do not seem to fit this year. Figuring out the role of the +IOD as a driver this winter will be critical. I know HM is following this. May help with favorable MJO phases and possibly with the placement of tropical forcing as well. However, not 100 % sure about those possible relationships.

@WxUSAF the trend is your friend I like this, and as Dave mentions for two reasons, one we need the rain and for winter to produce we really need to get some coastal action going into the fall .

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/your-eight-minute-speed-date-pacific-meridional-mode Pacific Meridional Mode

The post dealing with PMM he mentions the closet matches are : 67-68 59-60 16-17 92-93

@showmethesnow in regards to the above and the PMM this post mentions how the PMM provides different outcomes once we head deeper into the Fall season and the wavelengths lengthen. This progression, should it hold, will yield a very cold December. December