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Ventrice got disgusted with folks saying the GEFS is correct and the EPS was wrong. I know last winter was a huge one up in the Northern Plains. Denver where my daughter was had a great winter, blizzards and all. Hoping we do not repeat that pattern again, time to spread the wealth. Again, maybe we just require time to transition deeper into the Fall. No one has any real firm idea about the winter yet. So many contrasting signals, and issue with sea ice, the ENSO, everything really. I even read that the QBO my not be a player for us here until very late in the winter, as it needs to descend further and even that is not a guarantee it will work in concert with other players such as tropical forcing to provide the colder and snowier outcomes we wish for.

Also, seems very difficult to get a +PNA. Had it in the July, August and even Sept. but so far this October it has been mostly a - PNA. Last winter I also think it was negative for a significant amount of the time .

A little more on the changes for late month, this is a good one from Webb, explains maybe why things are turning the way they are for later October.

Have to wonder whether the Euro does have some sort of bias with over doing a SE ridge / WAR. Pretty dramatic changes on the EPS yet, as others have mentioned, the GFS and the GEFS have not changes that much. I really like to see some stability in the Euro. I mean now it has the cold dump in the West. Ventrice posted on this, but I would not really feel totally comfortable buying that look 100 % from the Euro at this time. And lets not forget the times of those forecasts , one from Monday and the latest from last night.

So true. That was a big issue, pumped a ridge and then the corresponding SE ridge gave us warmth. I know bluewave and I were talking about the sea surface anomalies North and South of Hawaii last winter and the set up so far this fall. Also the research on the warmer SSTs being closer to the Aleutian islands versus closer to the coast of the Pacific NW is interesting. It is going to be a little longer until we get an idea where the Ridge axis is going to set up. Too far West as you know would be a bad thing for us. Along with you and CAPE, I have no expectations about the winter ahead. Honestly I miss the days when I was 10 years old and awoke to find a winter wonderland.

You might like this research , it touches on your statement. There is discussion on absolute versus relative anomalies .

Of course, I see many mets and private services going with more recent winter analogs and many mets are beginning to question analogs form the past due to recent GW. Possibly they feel they have less value. However, I still think there is value to be gained from the past if you allow for what we have seen the last 7 years around these parts, and then tweak your analog package to account for the current climate regime. As for that map you posted, that is a good visual of the way things have gone recently this decade. However, I have to think if we get the re-emergence of a winter -NAO the NE section of the country will be much colder.

Excellent link, thanks ! Hopefully this winter should not be boring. ( in a good way ) And, I really do like what I am seeing in the Pac, and the NAO domain's early signs are intriguing.

Seems like the PMM is a player too. But you are correct bluewave , there are so many significant players to consider and how they will interact with each other. I am becoming more fascinated every day with the effect of the solar min on the winter temps.

@poolz1 Just as much as getting the block to form is the location of it . This might be another indication for the winter upcoming , speculation of course . The map you have here is classic West NAO domain based blocking. You can see that many posters across the Pond are complaining that over there the - NAO has so far only brought warmth. The East based - NAO is what they desire I believe. Of note as well, if you look at some 500 mb maps posted around the low solar winters they look like the map above. Does this repeat in the winter , not sure. But, no longer can those who say it means nothing continue to say that, because we are into early November if that map verifies. Meanwhile ,solar conditions are pretty dead. Even though the numbers are not on par with 09- 10 we have very low AP numbers, low solar flux and very low sunspots. This is purely solar minimum winters: This is solar minimum winters ( below ) combined with a Enso neutral / weak warm , note the change in the NE Pac and the cold extends East to Europe and beyond.. Courtesy Andrej Flis ( @Recretos )

OMG

This is pretty remarkable and a huge driver to the pattern

Do you think the way November goes, the winter might go as well ? And some pros are saying despite the Nina like referecnes some are making, in reality it is not really Nina correlated at all. Beyond that too technical for me to decipher what they mean. Guessing might have to do with the walk cell, BDO, IOD, MT, etc.

@poolz1 a little tidbit for you

Wonder what happens when we get to December and wave lengths lengthen? I need to read more about walker cells and such.

Nice time lapse. Thinking in the process here extensive snow cover in NA the next 15 days, and then with the PV back closer to Siberia building cold air and the snow cover/advance resumes shortly.

@bluewave do you see anything to be concerned about here with the latest PAC SSTs ? ( that is if you enjoy cold and snow in the East later in December ) Seems we are having some changes as we knew there would be. The warm pool has diminished somewhat , warmer anomalies near the Aleutian islands , cooling off the West Coast. Does this current set-up support a Se ridge and reinforces the High North of Hawaii? Or, is the weather pattern out there in flux as you mentioned going towards a -EPO.

When I think back to last winter and things to watch of real substance as clues to the upcoming winter one would be getting the trough in East and the ridge to set up out West for more than a day or two. Last year and this year as well, there has been a very fast Pac jet that broke down quickly any attempt out West for a ridge to form. I thought the seasonal guidance had a forecast of robust West coast ridging at times extending into a + PNA . To make matters worse we set records for the speed of the Pac jet last fall and winter , some really crazy numbers. We need to buckle the flow and get some real changes out West extending into NW Canada, These are some things I would look for in the next 4 to 6 weeks as possible clues for the period DJF.

The association that we once thought was so important has certainly faded in the last 4 to 5 years. I really started to doubt the importance of this when one fall we had an incredible October Siberian snow cover advance and a then a flat AO and NAO in the months ahead. The following Feb. Judah stated the October advance was actually too fast and because of that the anticipated blocking never developed. Huh.... Maybe we need a shake up and I see no concerns about the Siberian snow cover presently. I am more interested in the Pac including Pac forcing, PDO and the IOD, etc.including the QBO for the upcoming winter. Also, very interested in seeing how November plays out. Would like to see some West Coast ridging and the Davis Straights block to really develop and a continuation of a stormy and active pattern in the East.

This is great news regarding the QBO. Ditto for the solar connection

Here comes the next batch of rain for early next week, courtesy of the tropics and the GOM.

@showmethesnow Wow, it is big ! If this actually happens maybe we can place more confidence in the models later in the winter should ( " IF " ) they forecast another huge Greenland block.

This is really nice to see, another unusual mid-October powerful cyclone. Wonder what happens as we shift to late Nov. and early December as the baroclinic zone shifts South. Also, previous monthly Euro runs showed an active East Coast .

You have to think now that maybe the NAO is starting to show its hand. I know some long range models take it back up to positive in later November but still it is at the least nice to see it going negative again.

@poolz1 HM beating the drums