frd
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Everything posted by frd
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Ray, do you see any drivers over whelming the ENSO? Some private mets that run natural gas and ag consulting are really hammering the QBO and the low solar background state. Also, several mets are even mentioning we experience a combo in a new analog era of a hybrid ENSO - a combo of both Nina and Nino characteristics. What are your thoughts on them, if you can comment partially, prior to your seasonal release . Thanks
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Northern and central North America gain significant snow cover in the next 10 days with this pattern. Likewise Siberia/Eurasia snow cover exploding and the area below 60 N looks to do well. DT's video shows a powerful upper low end of the month there, should end up strong . Sure looks active for us as well. Active is good . And yeah, more snow in Denver for my daughter. Some have all the luck!
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A little comparison focusing on HDD from BAMWX GWHDD verifications for the 8-14 day lead in the GEFS and EPS so far. The EPS has a glaring warm bias with its longer lead HDD forecasts https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1186645988397735936
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I'm going in , sorry ass bitches
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@C.A.P.E. Another area to look at is the TNI. When you look at this ENSO metric it is very difficult to find a usable analog because the present value of - 3 there have only been a handful of times it has been that negative, as pointed out on the recent blizzard of 96 blog. I looked back to 1946 and doing a quick scan only saw the value at - 3 or lower four times. 2002 and 2004 , I believe they both had cold Decembers . .
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Focusing just on wavelengths , there may be some surprises as we enter December. The PMM has an interesting association once wavelengths change. Posted on that a while ago but since then the PMM has only gone higher. There have been some years, when looking in the past, where the pattern did change later in November and brought a favorable wintry period to our area in early December lasting into the middle of the month. Maybe that shows up in the weeklies once past early November.
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Fits the Seasonal outlook. For those that follow the weeklies may I suggest......... some Zoloft
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I am not liking this set up. Warm waters shifting further West in time. Wonder if this effects the middle Pacific and feedback towards a WAR.
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More for informational purposes but I am sure there is a link to sensible weather, regardless is rather sad indeed.
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Big time NA snow cover advance in the days ahead. This is really essential for cold air delivery in the early season .
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A great pattern for those North of us in about 30 to 45 days, somewhat a gradient pattern for them.
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All cold prior to December 5 th is useless anyways ...... bring the hammer after December 5 th and put some Bing Crosby on the airwaves.... I would enjoy a warmer day or two in later November anyways to put the lights on the trees, so pretty to look at but so tedious to do. Takes 1/20 th of the time to undo those wrap-arounds.
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Interesting
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Simply looking at the NAO and the AO you think otherwise to a degree. But man, that PNA loves to be negative, we can not shake that. Plus, we can not build any West Coast ridging. Of course the model error may have been those typhoons, however, many mets mid week already called for a late month cold snap. Goes to show you how difficult it is to predict the pattern. Can you imagine putting out a seasonal forecast ?
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The SST seasonal models weaken the very positive IOD in the months ahead. The QBO is descending, but there is some debate as to when , if at all, we reap the benefits here in the East. Some say later in the winter, while others say December and onward. Some interesting comparisons were posted a while ago in this thread regarding the QBO.
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Winds gusting to 28 mph still raining here....
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Interesting radar returns in the Chessy , pressure still dropping here with a NE wind .
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Looks great. I will have to take a pic of mine to share. All in all I am very happy with the way the front lawn looks. The two most challenging things for me was the aeration and watering when it was 94 degrees out. Your new fire pit and grass complement one another !
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Rainfall picking up here as well. I hear a chorus singing by the thousands in your hood CAPE....... It sounds like little seedlings singing the praises of rain
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From bluewave, and this is pretty remarkable. I hope to see some sort of reshuffle down the road that has some staying power. From bluewave 's recent post : <<<<<. We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo has been running the table this year. 2019 pattern to date >>>>>
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Siberian snow cover should resume shortly . Also read that sea ice should resume making a recovery form recent all time lows. Area with highest opportunity to improve would be NE of Greenland, extending to the East.
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Latest radar returns and trends would seem to reveal the heaviest rains From I - 95 East, taking time to run NE but seems to be doing so . Caveat is should the preip shield weaken.
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Agreed. Just happy in the present to see the dry period come to an end. Clarity regarding the early winter should be provided in the next few weeks .
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That might be the the most insightful comment of this entire thread. The new normal is a challenge. And, to make matters worse, it is ever-evolving.
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Wow to day 6 and 7. We are fighting our way out of this flash drought. Day 6 and 7 ...
