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A most interesting set-up in terms of the warming origins.

Low of 31 degrees here this morning. Heavy frost almost like a covering of light snow.

Maybe the early November cold has legs.

This makes a lot of sense and goes along with some of the mets I follow. The talk from some of them, including HM here is that "if" the seasonal models are indeed getting the winter NAO signal from forecasting and anticipating a strong to very strong PV, well, if the vortex if weaker, or more prone to shifts and elongations then the seasonal call for a mostly + NAO during December through Feb. might be very wrong. Taken a step further would potentially equate to a very different sensible weather outcome for some folks. Please keep in mind HM is talking about the AO and I am inferring the association to the NAO domain and the relationship of a not so strong PV.

If the UKmet couldn't forecast the seasonal NAO last winter, even after doubling down in November, how the hell can this trash model even attempt a seasonal forecast and for 4 months in a row as well of a + NAO ? Wait, persistence is modeled into the physics. It does have company, but many models last Fall called for a -NAO average during the winter. I don't buy it yet.

Difficult keeping the coffee hot this morning, with this chill in the air. Nice to hear from you, and looking forward to your insights as the season progresses.

So far, so good with the MJO.

Incredible winds last night estimate near 50 plus near midnight, many limbs down . Huge area under a freeze warning from Mount Holly. I put the hoses and sprinklers away, debating whether to cover the annuals, but the mums should still be OK I imagine. 930 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of northern, northwest and southern New Jersey, east central and southeast Pennsylvania and northeast Maryland. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Not to jinx us, but love seeing the orientation of the PV combined with the location and from there tons of snow will be put down just to our NW and a breeding ground for some very cold air delivery, eventually a direct discharge. We did not have this last year. Also, it seems the atmosphere, at least so far, is conducive to showing ( and delivering ) a good pattern. Hopefully any turn to the milder later in November is just a reload, or a brief moderation. Still like a normal December with snowfall opportunities.

QBO looking good so far

Cold and active Novembers correlates with March the best. Cold and snowy Decembers I read correlate better with the period Jan 1 to Feb 28 th. Of course as we know there are exceptions. If you believe the notion that this will be a back loaded winter, combined with a possibly colder and more active November leads me to think this March will have higher odds of snow and cold. With the exception of last March, we have trended to winters lasting longer, and starting later in this decade. @MountainGeek This is interesting Granted October 2009 was much colder , then November turned warmer in time

Like clockwork

Continued downward

Watched a great webinar about the upcoming winter featured by BAMMWX I took some notes while watching - was an awesome presentation. I did the best I could writing down the most important points. Analogs temps: 77/78 79/80 03/94 95/96 04/05 Analogs precip : 95/96 77/78 79 /80 93/94 Main warmer risk is that the Eastern ENSO areas warm up from the current levels. Month with the least confidence, December. Most confidence in Jan., Feb and the shoulder month March. ( cold, active, snowier ) Last years SH SSWE caused the SA Easterly wind signal and warmed the Eastern ENSO and impacted the winter . Impacted the MJO and the Jet. There is an association with SH's weather events/ SSWE , etc. and the effects on the MJO phase and movement in the Western Pac and the Maritime continent BAMMWx expects more phasing potential this year in the East, more STJ , etc. Biggest concern here the STJ outruns the PJ but they believe that will not be the case this winter. Can't ignore the last 18 years worth of Decembers, but there are significant signals that this December could be cold ( just be aware the ENSO argues against it to a degree, versus other factors that support it ) Early Season PV formation, shape and location are conducive to the delivery of cold air masses over the US. Different than other past early season PV. Solar min very significant , Sept 2019, lowest sunspot number since 1901. QBO, during the past 7 days has descended more than the past two months. QBO phase and shear favorable for cold in the East Interesting note that this year argues against splits but a weakened more elongated PV is favored. Also, the current location over Canada may be very hard to move and may favor our side of the pole. Other thing to consider robust NH snow cover. Able to deliver fresh arctic air masses into the NE Neutral ENSO combined with a + IOD leads to a cold East ( 3 rd most + IOD at this time ) + QBO at 50 mb lessens the MJO or keeps it closer to phases 8 , 1 and 2, much different than last year. Cold winter phases are most likely . This is already happening According the BAMMWX the PDO is not the biggest driver. + PMM although not as positive recently, there is still a very strong signal for a tall North Pacific ridge and a trough in the East in December. There is also the association of a more enhanced STJ as well. Can enhance phasing as well. Overall BAMMWX going with a colder December and a generally cold and snowy winter forecast. Some other notes - ENSO set up - most important is the placement of the warmer and cooler anomalies - currently Warmer West , much cooler Easter regions. Latest data, sub surface warmth increasing in the Western areas ENSO is the main factor against a cold December in the East Kirk mentioned he expects a change in the weeklies soon, and that many times the reason the Euro weeklies and seasonal do so poorly is a poor initialization CFS HDD doing a lot better EURO with a 8 to 14 point warm bias days 9 to 14

Even areas that scored last November with snow went on to meager seasonal snowfall totals. I am stirring the pot about December. I can see this December going in several directions. It could buck the trend of recent years where November was cold and then the following December went warm or warmer. Hm's post about the period after 12/20 makes you think. Last December had the feeling it would be a more normal month until the ensembles starting painting a different picture. Several forecasters had a snowy holiday period but alas that did not work out. We very well could cycle back to a favorable pattern later in December , even if we turn milder at some point. Again for us, it would be great to get a Western based - NAO in December to increase our odds combined with a -AO.

We cold November , we roast in December , unless you wan to gamble against the new normal. Maybe a December - NAO will provide the means to a colder outcome in the East .

Sea ice recovery update from Bring Back over at 33andrain below. Nice to see this robust recovery ( off of all time lows ) and goes along with rapidly building NH Snow cover. Bring Back, ( David ) does a great job at explaining everything about sea ice. IMHO my take on this right now is a robust cryosphere is developing and this raises the possibility that in the next couple of months a severe arctic outbreak is possible in the East. from David : <<<<<< Another 250,000 sq km of new ice yesterday! Right now the record rate of 1 m increase every 4 days persists! While this incredible rate cannot be sustained much longer, I do feel that 2019 will exceed 8 m sq km by this weekend and that will put it ahead of 2012, 2018, 2007 and 2017 in that order (with 2016 passed yesterday) and not far off 2010. In other words 2019 over just 2 weeks will recover from by far the lowest extent to exceed the decadal mean. I should add (as I do in my longer posts) that this does NOT mean that the overall 2019/20 winter Arctic ice extent will end up any better than in other low extent recent years. Let's hope that the conditions remain conducive for a continued strong recovery. The express recovery rate continues: >>>>>

With all the talk about using only recent analogs and all the repeating warm Decembers periods, especially later in the month, as HM brings up post 12/20 , I found this post enlightening. Wonder if this year we buck the trends and persistence of the post 12/20 period? So, looking at the data - Nina-like is a chillier December and Nino-like warmer, makes sense. This year though we have a variety of drivers, how they interact will be very interesting.

Brrr......... having to buy several Chapsticks...... , one for the car, one for work, and one for home. A critical need for us weather weenies.... Plus, I keep losing them, then I freak out. Solution - buy a lot ! Early November looks cold with very low dew points !

Seems in the process the Hudson Bay vortex moves further South , more so than typical. Maybe an indication of an eventual discharge of very cold air down our way in early to mid December. Speaking of December -

Euro monthly interesting with a disrupted PV further into the month of Nov. Also, as mentioned by HM recently, a couple drivers are present to provide stress to the PV I like seeing the Aluetian Low - Scandinavia High combo later in November showing up. Matt Hugo is all over this. Meanwhile, we have the QBO continuing to descend, rapidly building snow cover across the entire NH and low solar min with short-term quiet condition continuing, all in our favor currently. I like what I am seeing and starting to get just a bit excited for the prospects of holiday cheer.

Some mets are saying whatever happens in the winter, whether warm or very cold will feature extreme events, with anomalous low pressure and deep troughs. Of course the areas to be hit is yet to be determined. However, based on the recent change in sensible weather in the NE, high precip, high wind events and national headlines regarding storms you think there is some fact to these ideas actually becoming reality in the period December to March. Do you think we have an active winter in the East ?

Tasty

At least we are not looking at a 2018-ish playbook.

Not bad..... as you said, steady as she goes.