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Looking at North America, and even NW of Alaska there is no shortage of disturbances moving SE to feed into the massive cold pool over the East.

OMG all of these index forecasts keep looking better every day, crazy !!!

I am getting a boat and heading East, way East. This representation is meh for the low lands all along the East Coast. And, yes I know Thinking this trends better over time. Should be a cycle of storms from offshore trending to more typical SECS, analogs will be telling as well.

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1872828840109867239 Checking on the AIFS 18z ... unloads everything on the Eastern U.S. Still 10-12 days away, but unless/until something changes with all of the models, we're looking at a severe cold snap in Jan 8-11 windows.

Snow into Florida, ensures snow in our region.

Of interest https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872804772027285756 A note of caution...the analog patterns centered on the 9th are not the most snow heavy in the world for DC. Of the 10 listed, only four had above 5" of snow in January. 1981 - 4.2" 2001 - 2.7" 2007 - 1.3" 2002 - 4.5" 1980 - 8.6" 1985 - 10.0" 1977 - 10.3" 2017 - 1.4" 2018 - 1.2" 2010 - 7.4" So the "it's cold but the storms just don't line up for DC" scenario is of course, on the table. But still, it's hard not to be excited for the pattern ahead. None of the analog years had NO snow, and I'm doubtful we get through the first 2/3 of January without getting SOMETHING to stick on the ground. Just not sure if that means a blizzard, or more of a less memorable but still disruptive snow. Time will tell...(8/)

You think this continues to trend better this weekend into next week?

I like

If the EPS ic correct at range, cold air should not be an issue. Coldest early Jan since 2018 possibly.

Nothing remarkable there, just climo. I would focus on the trends starting this weekend for Jan 7 th to Jan 15 th.

Always appreciate your input. We all strive to have a cup 1/2 full mentality. With my recent loss of a loved one, I too might be looking less excited about snow potential and other things in life too. Recent modeling still looks good for us snow lovers. At least we are I the game. I take that any day.

Dry was always a concern. Seasonal models predicted subnormal precip. We only get dumped on during the transition period to cold. Which is rain. It's a bummer.

Rather intense Davis Straits block depicted there. Pretty cool look.

+PNA more associated with SECS , is that correct Chuck ?

https://x.com/ryankanerWX/status/1872004512376127920 Appears that the EPS with trough axis too far East, even at hour 342, hopefully things change in future runs, if not might just end up with very cold and dry conditions, storms way offshore of the Mid Atlantic and even the NE.

Time is in the eye of the beholder, or is that beauty.

Need to score by Jan 10 because the latest weeklies progress to your typical Western trough and SER by mid Jan. The window of oppurtunity is getting smaller. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871302683820265887

Even a severe - NAO is not a gaurantee of cold and storms for our area. Three timres in the last 7 years we have had -3.0 NAO and nothing to prove for it. Even had historic - AO and resulted in zero snowfall. We really need a favorable Pac and a lot of luck as well.

What an amazing rise !

Yes, but as pointed out by @psuhoffman , we do have the Pac in our favor this go around, ( minus the feedback loop ) but still a concern, don't mean to be a Debbie Downer.

The warm Atlantic has been mentioned in this possible connection. The NAO block the is forecasted may very well linked with the SER diminshing the benefits of the NAO block. Hence the favorable patterm in the long range never happens, but that is too soon to worry about.

First time in a million years I have seen the AO drop like this heading into prime climo in our area, and right after the Winter solstice as well. Past examples of this timing had the cold locking in for a while, combined with storminess. Cold temps arriving with likely odds in early Jan., along with signals that support SECS. Watch the -AO drop even before the EOY.

Great post by Tomer on the pattern evolution going forward. I like it ! mentions the word snow .... https://x.com/burgwx/status/1870246071852572678

Well, with the cup 1/2 full, ratios would be much higher.

All we can ask is being in the game.