frd

We will trend colder near early to mid March, but doubt its cold enough for snow in our region, except for maybe psu land. The core of the cold will reside in the NE part of the country. Not seeing the bowling bowl pattern across the Midwest, and the cold is easing out West, while the AO continues positive, there is no severe AO for mid month for cold air delivery. Also, by mid March the PNA goes negative.

Blocking is gone. Return to normal and the 50's. Might hit 60 next Tuesday.

HM also thought like you. He believed in a Northern Mid-Atlantic SECS to a MECS. Weather is fascinating.

You mean a snow hole or a Black Hole ?

Remarkable the amounts of snow in VA. Without question the Southern areas did well this winter. Despite a -5.25 SD AO our area did not get the worse of the recent cold, snowy winter weather, but nation-wide it was much more severe in Tenn. Valley, Plains, and the areas well South of us. The white out in VA. and other areas was crazy earlier this week. The depth of the arctic air mass via the severe AO was amazing in the Midwest, and in the Plains. The long range control model and other model snowfall ensembles as usual did a shit show with tons of snow over the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Seasonal tendency won out mostly. We are lucky we got what we did. Areas of Florida had more snow this season than Philly. That was on the local ABC network news last night.

This is funny.

Where have I heard that before. Bring on spring and the sun, my vitamin D levels are low.

You must have made a pack with the Devil. That's the only way it will snow.

GFS with a more robust - EPO signal, Euro not as much, Euro AI even less.

Your spot was gold this year, mine was tin.

Define lowlands. Because here I am below climo. @CAPE did much better than me to my far SSW. Seasonal trend/outcomes sucked here.

Winter storm longe range and medium range forecasting is humbling for the pros and mets. Even HM thought this was a go. I am glad I learned from previous disappointments not to get too invested or believe modeling 100%. Also, consensus does not equate to final outcome. Happy to have had a couple winter advisory events.

Seems winter is the hardest season for model accuracy. Is that correct?

How much time do we have left for a significant change to more robust storm solution?

29.16 Baro here , wow ! Clearing line moving East, taking the dog for a walk soon before the 60 mph winds arrive. Mount Holly states highest wind potential here between 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM this evening. However, winds can gust to 50 m.p.h. until 6:00 PM tomorrow.