96blizz

We did quite well with the lake effect yesterday and last night here in Skaneateles. Beautiful powder and perfect small flakes still falling. Finally looks like winter!

The backside lake effect band could mean business if this keeps creeping closer to the coast… 6z RGEM

I have been watching mostly for the lake effect. The 18z Euro and EPS show it again along with the RGEM. I also think closer to the coast and we can get some region-wide lake enhanced mood snows on Friday AM.

Everything but the GFS has come NW - and some by quite a bit. As expected!

18z 3KM final frame. Can you imagine the I95 crew with this kind of shadowing?

Like this… I wrote the full article 5 years ago… Phase 4: The Weenie Suicide Phase, The Mid Range This is the phase that happens every time. Every. Single. Time. But it’s just as painful for all of us. Every model has shown our bomb by this time – and then every single model loses it out to sea – seemingly all at the same time! How? Why? What life choices could I have made differently so this didn’t happen? Why do cutters always cut? F*ck the Midwest. What good is snow for the ocean and fish? The GGEM sucks. The GFS is garbage. The Euro is NOT the same since it’s upgrade. This is the phase when you’ll get to learn all about the models of the world – our very own “Weenie Model Universe” contest. There’s a French Model; German; Korean; Japanese; and a Tanzanian. These get yanked out from places on the internet that will probably freeze your computer and offer you real porn (but you X out of that because you’d rather look at the model than that in case it shows our bomb again). Remember this: In the Mid Range, the JMA will stay amped; the NAVGEM will show a couple of bombs; the GFS will be so stubborn you want to bomb NCEP; and the Euro will likely stay fairly consistent with it’s solution. It’s also at this point some knucklehead starts posting the long range NAM, SREFs and RGEM – even though it’s like driving to work with Stevie Wonder at the wheel. You may get there, but your odds aren’t very good. Many will exclaim that they give up but we all know you’ll be there at every model cycle. Spirits are down, relationships with spouses are on the fritz, drinking picks up and children are neglected – until… Phase 5: The Short Range and the NW Trends Despite all of the heartache leading up to this point, this always happens. ALWAYS. The storm you saw at 240 on the Euro and on all the models at the Mid Range at some point – starts its inevitable NW climb. It’s never an all out bomb again. No, no, no weenies – it’s a slow and gradual change. A ‘tick’ as most of you would say. “The GFS is a tick NW but, aloft, it should have been better.” “The Euro is NW again but there should be room for more movement our way given the look of H5.” “The Jet Streak on the NAM begs for a deformation band on top of our heads. Still time.” “The German ticked West along with the French” (really? Who gives a flying donkey f*ck). It’s at this point that you’re happy again. You kiss your wife or girlfriend. The air smells fresher. You say hi to all of your neighbors while walking the dog. You even pick up their dog’s sh*t. Then, the day/night before the storm, the short range models like the NAM and RGEM show an all out hit. Meanwhile, the level-headed professionals at the NWS and other outlets get the snot kicked out of them by weather forums around the world. “What are they doing!?!?!” “Can’t they see what the RGEM just did?” “People are going to die at the hands of the NWS. Blood. Yes, blood, is on their hands.” Weenies post snow maps. There are contests for gift cards. Donations to the boards per inch (all of a sudden, because it’s going to snow, weenie’s normally tight wallets are like mini ATM machines). It is the eve before the snowstorm that you’ve tracked so tirelessly for 10 days now and there is bound to be a ‘Weenie baby boom’ 9 months from this night – our next generation of trackers are smaller than a snowflake and look like microscopic tadpoles – but they’ll be on these boards soon enough and neglecting to read this sage advice: Something is about to happen overnight….

It’s so classic. I know I’ve posted my guidelines here before but when the storm is in sparse regions it loses it SE. when it gets close to land it starts to climb back to where it was 2 or 3 days prior. It happens so often I wrote about it! It doesn’t always work of course - but it wouldn’t shock me one iota if this ends up looking like the Euro from two days ago. Hell, the GFS is about 800 miles NW from 3 runs ago!

They are also anticipating the possibility of the classic NW climb!

I agree 100 percent. Following the classic east coast snowstorm pattern. Find it. Lose it SE. Climb back NW.

I think we could manage a fluffy couple of synoptic inches. the back side lake effect is more intriguing.

The GFS and Euro have started to trade places the last 24 hours or so. The long range NAM gets us. Still time for this to climb NW or, of course, be a fish. last 3 GFS runs…

Doesn’t look good for us. Still plenty of time.

10 here in skaneateles with time to keep dropping.

Well the Euro sure as shit won’t be the GFS. Maybe a bit more East but it’s got a storm.

Yep. Great for the major cities. No bueno here.

Euro, CMC and RGEM phase the energy over roughly western Tennessee. GFS doesn’t. Will be interesting to see the GEFS as I imagine many members will look Euro-ish.

The 6z EPS low centers were actually further west than 0z just not quite as wet.

Got a look at the 6z EPS from elsewhere and it’s even more amped and solid for us here in Central NY for Thursday into Saturday. Starkly different than the GFS.

Hey, it wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!!!

If so, I feel for him! I completely quit drinking alcohol in my late Moms honor (she passed in February as some of you may recall) in April. This is the first New Year’s Day in 27 years (I am 42) that I didn’t drink the night before. I feel incredible.

Happy New Year all! Great write up @BuffaloWeather!! Thinking tonight is the turning point for us! As a Miami Dolphins fan, I see this winter like our season…. P.S. Thanks for beating the Pats last week. Our turn next week!

I think the timing is awesome. A Sunday afternoon with awesome football games on. Sign me up for even mood flakes. Anything more is gravy.

About 5.5” here in Skaneateles! Christmas is saved!

Looks like some light lake effect mood drops of rain on Xmas while we huddle around the tree here in upstate NY. …just freaking fantastic.