nycsnow

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LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Points: * Colder and windy conditions expected early next week after a cold frontal passage Sunday night. * Potential is increasing for a major winter storm from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Complex pattern developing over North America during this time should help lock in cold air, with one large closed low developing over eastern Canada and another in its wake over the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes. At the surface, strong low pressure moving from upstate New York toward the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night will bring a cold front through, with colder and brisk conditions for Monday and possibly into Tuesday via a tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure off to the west. Meanwhile, shortwave energy moving onshore the West Coast early next week should dive toward the southern Plains by Wed AM and initiate sfc cyclogenesis along the northern Gulf coast daytime Wed. The degree to which this system phases with the northern Plains closed low will determine the track and intensity of the developing sfc low as it moves up the Southeast coast Wed night and then off the Mid Atlantic coast Thu/Thu night, pulling away on Fri. There is increasing potential for a major winter storm to impact the area from Wed night into Thu night with heavy snow during this time, also strong N winds Thu night--the 12Z ECMWF ensemble control run shows an intense low off the Mid Atlantic coast passing just outside the 40N/70W benchmark Thu night, bringing major snowfall for all the I- 95 cities from DC to Boston, with its axis of heaviest snowfall very close or just south and east which make sense given that storm track, while the ensemble control run shows widespread 50-60% potential for 6 or more inches of snow during this time. The Canadian model and its ensemble are in close agreement, while the deterministic GFS/ICON are suppressed, showing the heaviest snow mostly away from the big cities, impacting eastern Delmarva and southern NJ over to the Cape and Islands of MA. That said, the GEFS does show some ensemble members supporting the ECMWF/Canadian solution. Enough confidence in winter storm potential exists to include mention in the HWO.

12z

Mostly the coast this run, but if euro is right a 977 low offshore I’m pretty sure wind field would be larger but minor details at this point

Euro would be a blizzard for coast with wind gust around 45mph

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Here it comes Image

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31 inches nyc lol Image

Snow map is gonna be 20+ over metro area

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Snow map is gonna be absolutely stupid Image

OH MY GOD Image

Crawling oh man it’s gonna go boom Image

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It’s gonna be good Image

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Past few runs I noticed there’s been some 50-55mph gust showing up on models. Also, just seems like it’s widespread not confined to coast or anything etc

Yea I tend to agree, trend of winter. But still plenty of time. Next week can be very active models really picking up on a pretty big wind event Monday followed by a storm Thursday

Thursday works better for me lol but ya seems like that’s also another difference in models some are a wed night early Thursday event others Thursday afternoon