.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
High impact storm continues with strong S winds, heavy rainfall,
possible severe tstms late from NYC west.
Expanded high wind warning to entire CWA with reports of 60+ mph
winds in the Hudson Valley earlier. Summary LSR just
issued detailing wind and damage reports area-wide.
Precip has become more showery in nature compared to earlier,
with a warm front just to the south and west where
temps/dewpoints are now in the 60s. Radars show LLJ core
approaching, with winds 85-90 kt at FL020 over the ocean just S
of Long Island, with buoy 44025 30 nm south of Islip having just
gusted to 76 mph. So....strongest winds for NYC, Long Island, S
CT should arrive next 2-3 hours, with peak gusts 60-80 mph
expected as the LLJ continues to strengthen, to as high as 100
kt at 900 mb across Long Island mid to late afternoon.
Bands of tstms in the warm sector to the west (where a tornado
watch is in effect) could reach areas from NYC metro west after
4 PM. SPC has expanded slight risk area to NYC doorstep. Given
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg and strong, veering low level wind
profiles, embedded supercells in these bands could produce
damaging winds and possibly a tornado.
Expect max temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60s across
Long Island and southern CT, and well into the 60s across NE NJ
and the lower Hudson Valley.