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nycsnow

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Everything posted by nycsnow

  1. nycsnow
    54 degrees. Jfk already gusted to 31
  2. nycsnow
    How are the soundings comparing so far to the nam?
  3. nycsnow
    Guess time will tell thanks
  4. nycsnow
    Wonder if the warmer temps are gonna make a difference some places are already upper 50s
  5. nycsnow
    Are you able to tell what actually mixes down?
  6. nycsnow
    12z nam pretty much consistent winds 40-50 around 3pm peak gust 70s over night. Not sure what soundings look like
  7. nycsnow
    Latest HRR actually got a little stronger with the winds for nyc east
  8. nycsnow
    .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The main weather hazards with the strong cold front will be strong winds with gusts up to near 65 mph, possible flooding, both from heavy rain and coastal flooding. Winds will continue to increase in the low levels of the atmosphere Thursday night along with the rain. The rain will become more widespread and will become heavy. Vertical forcing is shown with Q Vector convergence in the 850 to 500 mb layer. PWATS with all the increasing southerly flow will rise near 1.5 to 1.6 inches by early Friday morning, which is above the maximum moving average climatology for OKX according to SPC sounding climatology. Model soundings show warm cloud depth 10-11 kft. Despite the lack on instability, still a lot of dynamic forcing and anomalous moisture so flooding will be a possibility including flash flooding. With the strong SE flow, that should enhance rainfall amounts for the higher terrain north and west of NYC with orographic lift. Those locations could end up being on the higher side of total rainfall amounts. See hydrology section for more details and for the coastal flooding see the tides/coastal flooding section for more details. For the winds, there will be a low level jet strengthening through the night, with around 90-95 kt winds in the 850 to 900mb layer as a max near 7-11Z for NYC and locations north and west, SW CT, Central Long Island in the 8-12Z time period and 9-13Z to the east using the 3km NAM Bufkit. The NAM shows a stronger inversion so only a fraction of this jet will be mixed down, but with the downward momentum from the heavy rain, winds at 1500 ft could easily mix down and those are in the 50-60 kt range. The models have a consensus of a main cold frontal squall line that moves into the forecast region and then strengthens as it moves across Long Island and Southern Connecticut. With GFS Bufkit shows this as well but overall timing with the whole cold front and highest winds and rain is a few hours earlier compared to the NAM.
  9. nycsnow
    Full sunshine here temp should rise quick. Very breezy
  10. nycsnow
    Most of the area is already in the 50s and south shore or nyc out east and jersey shore already gusting to around 30
  11. nycsnow
    That’s what I meant sorry didn’t specify they think 50-60knots mix down
  12. nycsnow
    Con Ed trucks all over already
  13. nycsnow
    All the models are basically the same as far as timing and gust potential I guess it’s just comes down to the inversion now, upton thinks with the rain we should be able to mix down 50-60kt
  14. nycsnow
    Upton thinks rain should help mix winds down
  15. nycsnow
    I was 1 haha
  16. nycsnow
    Plus all the melting snow in the city, and hours of 40-50 gust will beat up trees. I live 4 blocks from the water and 10 min from Atlantic in Brooklyn south we usually take a beating in winds by me. But to counter all this isias and a severe t storm event we had did take down a lot of dead wood.
  17. nycsnow
    If the nam has a clue we are gusting 40-50 starting around 4pm 50-60 around 8pm and then 70-80 after midnight. Not saying it’ll be that high but that’s what the 00z nam shows
  18. nycsnow
    Nam even more impressive with the winds wow spots of 80-90mph gust popping off shave 20 off that still impressive
  19. nycsnow
    Flood watch up
  20. nycsnow
    What do the other models show as far as inversion
  21. nycsnow
    Gfs euro nam all consistent with the gust now
  22. nycsnow
    Gfs pretty similar to nam not sure what soundings show though
  23. nycsnow
    Nam has gust to almost 80 southern parts of nyc and Long Island. Wow
  24. nycsnow
    Nam is very impressive gust 70+
  25. nycsnow
    Would be a lot more alcohol consumption
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