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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Oh wow. I have some Cushwa pils in my fridge.
  2. WxUSAF
    Where is that??
  3. WxUSAF
    Eh...I think he was honking that Xmas time pretty darn hard last year for the east coast. Then when it turned into a cutter he got very belligerent, defensive, and turned into this punitive anti-weenie persona.
  4. WxUSAF
    43F and light rain. 0.15” so far. THIS is November weather!
  5. WxUSAF
    We’ve had several BN Novembers in the last decade. I think it’s maybe the one month that’s trending cooler in the most recent climate period? And that’s done and meant jack shit for our subsequent winters.
  6. WxUSAF
    Even JB is predicting a AN December I think so it won’t exactly be a shock. I don’t think we have a December 2015 redux with shorts weather to Hudson Bay though. My wag is that we get *some* snow and a chilly period (4-7 days) or two.
  7. WxUSAF
    Isn’t cankicking strat warming events and disruptions pretty par for the course? Background factors would support a SSW at some point this winter, but I’m game for vanilla below normal strat PV strength as well.
  8. WxUSAF
    Models won’t pick up on the Chicago cutter that gets our Christmas torch until 7-10 days out.
  9. WxUSAF
    Nice video winter summary by WBAL chief meteorologist Tom Tasselmeyer. https://www.wbaltv.com/article/winter-snow-forecast-baltimore-2023-2024/45791320
  10. WxUSAF
    12z GEFS and GEPS both with pretty big shifts away from -PNA after D8.
  11. WxUSAF
    First really bonkers GFS run of the cold season. Fun stuff!
  12. WxUSAF
    So you’re saying seasonal forecasting is imperfect?
  13. WxUSAF
    CWG forecast is bullish for this winter.
  14. WxUSAF
    He knows. Just has to maintain the brand.
  15. WxUSAF
    Pretty good ensemble agreement on how the pattern develops going into Thanksgiving week with a much more Nino-like look to things. Pattern shuffle starts with this big upper low crashing into the west coast around D8-9. That serves to undercut the ridge in Canada and ridging expands over AK. This doesn't look like a particularly cold pattern for us with a +AO/+NAO and the coldest air from the -EPO will dump out west first before coming east. But it looks a lot more Nino-like and actually looks a fair bit like the December seasonal forecasts. Should also get us some regular precipitation started again...
  16. WxUSAF
    All in
  17. WxUSAF
    @griteater with a very readable and snow weenie friendly winter outlook
  18. WxUSAF
    Multivariate ENSO index. Basically a more comprehensive way to measure the impact of ENSO on the ocean and atmosphere. The current MEI is basically “warm neutral” vs strong Nino pacific SSTs.
  19. WxUSAF
    I think we may get a BN month…probably January, February, or March, but I’d be very pleasantly shocked if the winter as a whole is BN.
  20. WxUSAF
    WBAL Mets mostly going for median or above snowfall for BWI
  21. WxUSAF
    Yikes
  22. WxUSAF
    Negative correlation should be opposite signed, right? So +NAO in November would correlate to -NAO December?
  23. WxUSAF
    Yeah it’s “fine”. I’m just always impatient for winter to show up. Doesn’t change my feeling about winter at all.
  24. WxUSAF
    Weather looks incredibly boring for awhile. Generally warm and continued pretty dry.
  25. WxUSAF
    Official reports have 1.6” in DC for the great Appalachian storm and 0.5” for Baltimore.
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