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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    This will not happen
  2. WxUSAF
  3. WxUSAF
    Me looking at D10 Euro…
  4. WxUSAF
    Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25??
  5. WxUSAF
    Notably the GEFS has not had these crazy swings like that last 2 runs of the GFS, although it certainly has tended to weaken the big Tuesday/Wednesday low pressure.
  6. WxUSAF
    GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second
  7. WxUSAF
    6z gfs/GEFS got some morning indigestion or something. Just slightly different for the holiday weekend.
  8. WxUSAF
    Someday I hope that every ravens win doesnt come with a cost of losing a key player for an extended period of time.
  9. WxUSAF
    Maue just tweeted that things are coming back up, but I imagine it will be awhile before more products are flowing
  10. WxUSAF
    Verbatim, 12z GGEM would threaten some record low maxes/record lows next Friday-Saturday. Especially for BWI and maybe IAD. But GGEM runs too cold at the surface…although I think gfs is too warm also. My wag right now is maybe 18-22 for lows at BWI and IAD and highs in the upper 30s?
  11. WxUSAF
    ECMWF had a major power outage earlier today. I’ve heard nothing since.
  12. WxUSAF
    Can smell smoke in Columbia
  13. WxUSAF
    0z Euro jumped on the cold/very cold holiday period. A lot of previous runs kept the coldest air well north even as GFS and GGEM brought the TPV south.
  14. WxUSAF
    Paging @Midlo Snow Maker
  15. WxUSAF
    How many inches of digital snow at your house count for inches of real snow in the Nov 20-Dec 10 window??
  16. WxUSAF
    If this was happening even a couple weeks later we’d be getting some major DT-type woofin’
  17. WxUSAF
    12z gfs actually fairly close to 6z considering it’s like D12
  18. WxUSAF
    Yeah, maybe goes without saying, but for us east of the mountains in the mid-Atlantic to get snow in the post-thanksgiving period, something like that 6z gfs option is probably the best odds. Fresh cold airmass comes in and trailing wave is weak and moves along the thermal boundary to our south. A stronger storm would pull warmer air in and sink our chances east of the mountains. That’s more like 12z gfs next Saturday.
  19. WxUSAF
    I was just over 60” in 13-14 and I’m like <10 miles from BWI.
  20. WxUSAF
    ^still kinda crazy it’s even a bit FARTHER west than 2002/2009/1986. Despite our superdeeduper east based Nino. But I like descending motion over the maritime continent for sure.
  21. WxUSAF
    MJO progression into phases 3-4 (if it gets there) would suggest warmer risks going into December. That would also fit mod+ Nino climo. So we’ll see. But I think we get some sort of event in December.
  22. WxUSAF
    6z gfs agrees
  23. WxUSAF
    Ha jinx except I posted in banter
  24. WxUSAF
    Happy hour GFS saves winter before the turkey’s in the oven!!
  25. WxUSAF
    I personally toss 91-92 entirely due to Pinatubo. And Pinatubo =\ Hunga Tonga. 57-58 seems to have a lot going for it as an analog. It was a well AN snowfall winter as well. I think even adjusting it for climate warming would suggest optimism for snow.
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