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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    I like seeing a Scandinavian ridge showing up on guidance toward mid-month. That should slowly retrograde and help reinforce a -NAO.
  2. WxUSAF
    Low of 22
  3. WxUSAF
    A lot to like here, just don’t look at surface temps.
  4. WxUSAF
    “faint to modest indications” is a good motto for our subforum
  5. WxUSAF
    Congrats @GATECH!! A very impressive performance with a single day departure for BWI, IAD, and RIC and only 3 days for DCA. @BristowWx was second place with a total departure of 10 days and @southmdwatcher was third with a departure of 13 days.
  6. WxUSAF
    Our long nightmare is over
  7. WxUSAF
    If BWI has an average temp of 32 tomorrow (high of 40 low of 24), there were only a handful of colder days in the Nov 22-March 23 cold season.
  8. WxUSAF
    It’s quite typical for strat vortex disruptions to impact Europe first.
  9. WxUSAF
    If you're into Strat vortex talk, today is a good day. A weak Strat vortex plus MJO that should be propagating into favorable phases is a good combo for the week before Xmas and beyond. @griteater and DT both talking about that time period as well.
  10. WxUSAF
    30 at home. Stayed in the 30s today. Frigid with the wind.
  11. WxUSAF
    Big area of flurries and snow showers moving toward the M/D line. Hoffman better get that dry ice-cooled snow board out so he can rack up the flakes.
  12. WxUSAF
    FFS @psuhoffman, please tell us you’re shoveling this morning!!! The subforum’s hopes are teetering!
  13. WxUSAF
    T: 11/28/2023 Normally, I don’t count traces, but figure I better make a note in case this is all we get
  14. WxUSAF
    Pretty much equivalent to the 2nd heaviest snow of last winter
  15. WxUSAF
    Pounding snow (Winter 22-23 definition applies)
  16. WxUSAF
    Flurries in Columbia!!!
  17. WxUSAF
    Some northern stream energy has consistently been showing up behind those rainstorms. That will be a short range track if it happens.
  18. WxUSAF
    GFS and GGEM both showing coastal development in the Dec 5-7 period that @CAPE has shown a few times on the ensembles. Timing is key with active flow, but there’s cold air nearby.
  19. WxUSAF
    Peak climo in mid January to mid February? I don’t see how anything that’s being shown for the next two weeks should at all change anyone’s original opinion about how this winter will shake out. If anything, there’s still plenty of reason to be more optimistic that December won’t be a complete waste of which is very much in this strong Nino winter history.
  20. WxUSAF
    A period of -PNA to start December has been very well modeled and expected for like a week? And it’s also been seasonally expected for December by almost all monthly or seasonal outlooks?
  21. WxUSAF
    18z hrrr has flurries/snow showers Tuesday through MD
  22. WxUSAF
    Should be Tuesday morning. Right??
  23. WxUSAF
    On the same page. After the 6th or so we’re at least back “in the game” for something wintry if things align right. That’s about as good as we get usually and especially in December compared to recent years. Hopefully we can time something up.
  24. WxUSAF
    One important detail to note about this upcoming -NAO dominated pattern. The -PNA that’s also coming later this week and weekend is going to really scour out all the cold air on the continent. And that takes some time to regenerate in situ. So you see a gorgeous H5 pattern on the ensembles like this on and after the 6th or 7th and think we’re back to frigid temps and …nah.
  25. WxUSAF
    At least one very compelling date here
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