WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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30/16. Don’t pull any rugs out while I’m asleep.
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Solid dusting north of DC for the hrrr
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38/16
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Warnings and advisories issued. Warnings up for all of MoCo and HoCo. Advisories for everything north/east of them.
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3-4” mean focused on that D10 period. GEPS looks close to EPS on H5, but weaker surface reflection. GEFS farthest off, but still not a bad look.
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I think our zone (SE Howard) is probably the farthest north they’d consider upgrading at this point?
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Nowcast/obs thread now? Or before 0z?
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3 globals really aren’t that far apart at H5 for next week. Subtle placement and strength differences results in a MECS to clear and cold. I’d expect ensembles to be pretty lit up?
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Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog.
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Euro with the relative save for folks north of DC
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Falls apart of course. Vort gets lost in the southwest. But setup was there.
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Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm
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Looking at Pivotal maps, maybe not. TT was tricking me. It’s basically M/D line.
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Well, looks like GGEM maybe has 1” north of DC Wednesday afternoon/evening? More for mountains. GGEM has a brutal gradient north of DC for precip tomorrow though.
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I’m not believing in this Wednesday evening snow until I see some other guidance show it
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Yeah 3-6/4-6 seems right. Less than 1/6.
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Ooof. Northern edge gradient is not kind.
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Hrrr gets temps up to upper 30s/near 40 tomorrow. Hope that’s wrong.
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Icon is north from 6z and 0z. Not sure it matters since it’s the icon
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If it was different from the globals in track, precip totals, etc. I’d probably still be a little skeptical at this point? But it’s not. I think it’s been steady and in line with the globals so I think it’s very much worth factoring into forecasts.
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3k is basically better for everyone vs last few runs. Would be a big win if it verified.
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3k soundings look nice for metro areas. Comes in hot and heavy. Ripping in the 5-8pm window.
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Think we’re pretty much at noise level run to run changes. Each one may make a difference for someone’s backyard, but I don’t think there’s been any real “trend” in any direction for 24 hours or so. At this point, bigger differences are going to be due to ratios, whether any precipitation is lost to melting tomorrow afternoon, banding, etc
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I like the way you think
