WxUSAF
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Nice happy hour hit for VA next weekend on gfs
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These guys say pattern continues in mid December fwiw. Some cold analogs in that group.
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2-4” of snow over 2 weeks isn’t much of a signal for anything in January or February. But it’s respectable for the first 2 weeks of December.
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Low of 32. Hopefully warmest low temp for awhile.
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Omg Bears botched that soooo badly
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Dusting-1.5” on euro next week from a clipper
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GEFS on board EPS too…
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Even if the trough retracts westward, it looks more central CONUS-based rather than a deep -PNA as is typical in a Niña. Wouldn’t be a shit-the-blinds look. But let’s see what develops over the next 2 weeks first?
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Happy thanksgiving, weenies. Approaching 0.5” of rain today. Morning low was 41.5.
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DCA: 9.1” IAD: 14.5” BWI: 14.3” RIC: 7.8” SBY: 7.2”
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Yeah that looks nice. GEFS pretty similar, just less intense in the height anomalies. Both show us BN for the duration and precip bumps up starting late next week.
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I mean, when was the last warning level snowfall in DC in December? 2009?? There are reasons to be encouraged obviously. We need anomalously cold air in the first half of December to even have a chance. But this could be the winteriest December in years for our area and we could still end up with 2-4” of snow total…
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Yeah it looked good. Gfs is a parade of northern stream clippers that all manage to barely screw us lol. Either way, all showing potential by late next week and beyond.
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I mean, of course the ensemble doesn’t match a fantasy range storm on the Op? GEFS does show a lot more precipitation coming out of the gulf and southern plains by late next week though. Clearest signal seems to be around the 10th, but that’ll probably change.
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Enough models showing something late next week (Thursday-Friday) to have that as the first real window to watch. But pretty scattershot set of solutions obviously.
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EPS seems to be doing the same thing but later by a couple days. We’ll see how it all evolves in time.
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Not within the next 16 days at least according to the GEPS and GEFS. A little SER or WAR can be ok to keep the storm track close when we also have cold air established. But in this case, having the whole pattern move a bit west lets the Gulf open up potentially.
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GEPS was onboard with this before, but 12z is the first I’ve seen GEFS move strongly toward showing the western ridge move off the west coast, allowing the eastern trough axis to shift westward as well. And what happens almost immediately? The gulf opens up and precip starts flowing toward us. This is all after next weekend (7th and after), but I like to see it. Thanksgiving through the 7th or so looks northern stream dominant. After that, small shifts could open us up to more southern stream involvement.
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Obviously we could go through the whole cold pattern snowless, but I’d bet against getting totally skunked. But we could certainly top out at a dusting or two. Saw a plot yesterday of EPS analogs for its D10-15 forecast (this was yesterday’s 0z run). Couple were essentially snowless at BWI with just a T or two. Several had a light event or two nearby in time (1-3” type deal). Best was 12/5/2002…the OG December 5th storm.
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~1/4” of rain is a deluge by fall 2024 standards
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Damn. House shaking thunder at 630am on November 26th
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Yeah big win. Still so many penalties, but I’ll take that defensive performance.
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I saw a January 2022 H5 chart today. Looked a lot like our upcoming pattern to my eyes and I would jump at a January 2022 redux…
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It was key in 2013-14, which is getting tossed around a lot as an analog. WAR/SER was over us a lot, but with the arctic air to our northwest, we cashed in over and over.
