WxUSAF

Still probably 80% snowcover or more in Columbia, but that lifetime is measured in hours now.

Nice when eps looks the best of the 3 ensemble systems. I was liking GEFS most the last couple days. All look maybe 24-72 hours away from BN 850 temps and troughing at the end of their runs. Surface temps have a longer lag, but I’ll remind folks we don’t need BN temps to get snow (although it can help).

Almost every gfs op run the last couple days has ended with a storm happening or approaching. And I know…300+ hr gfs…I’m not taking any literally, but it gives me hope that there are enough scenarios where we can be back in the game pretty quickly.

It will. 0.0” from here until spring is the least likely outcome imo

Webb with an anti-flame emoji!?

It’s all we got for awhile so why not? If I lived on Mt PSU or in Winchester I’d definitely be watching.

We had “The Look” in 97-98 multiple times and got phasing southern stream coastal bombs 3 times I think? Just that temps were in the 40s and the rain/snow line was around frostburg…

Car thermometer read 12F in the USDA farm fields north of Greenbelt

Low of 13.6

Why are a couple eastern shore county schools closed and the rest delayed ?

Ugh that’s a tough loss. Already exhausted of hearing about Mahomes, Kelce, and Ta-Ta for next week.

What do I think of the NFC championship including 2 teams the ravens completely demolished? I’m for it

GFS is verbatim an example for Hoffman’s book with a perfect track at peak climo with a torched boundary layer.

All 3 ensemble systems are consistent with pattern evolution the first few days of February. The big pac jet extension is very short-lived and it weakens after a couple days. Then the trough out west starts to undercut the ridge in the east and the ridging rotates north and west across the continent. Keep this rolling forward a few more days and the reds and blues are mostly in the right places. Now do we need 7-10 more days to recharge cold air sources at peak climo? TBD, but I think it’s faster than that despite elephants and BAMwx flame emojis.

Low of 16, 20 currently

I had that as a kid!!

My son’s birthday is V-day and I promised him snow for it back in like October. Sooo…need something to happen by then.

This is the difference this year with Monken. Opposing defenses can slow them down for a time, but not the whole game.

Reset seems to have worked

Sheesh../offense needs a reset

Ravens receivers are not getting open for Lamar. He’s extending time and he isn’t finding them downfield which happened so much during the season.

Enough snow blowing off my roof that I can probably measure a few tenths new snow on my snowboard

I mean, that’s the peak of peak climo, so if we can get some fluke amidst an otherwise bad pattern, that’s the time for it to happen. Messy/mixed/flawed events are a normal part of climo for us! 2” that gets washed away, tail end slop following a rainer like December…they’re not glamorous, but that’s how we get to climo most times it happens.

Gun to head, I think we get another 7-10 day period that has a small event on the front and a MECS-scale event in the back, although maybe with more mixing in the metros than we’d prefer. Then another 1-2 smallish events after into the first 2 weeks of March. If it played out like that, most of us would be 100-125% of climo.