WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Correct
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Continuing to anti-cankick on 12z GEFS. Bad news for the Debs.
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Look earlier. That big PAC trough just scrours the continent of cold air while the big low moves underneath
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4th out of last 5 GFS runs with a big phasing/near-phasing coastal D8-11. Hopefully we see that again with some colder air in another few weeks.
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I think if last year wasn’t the worst ever maybe people would have a little more patience. I still think we get on the board this month and maybe really rock the first half of January. Yes
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I’m always cautious but the weeklies fit the MJO and strat progression. And now we’re seeing the transition on the ensembles inside D15. We’re not going to flip to an epic pattern from Xmas through March, but I’m feeling pretty good right now about late month into the first 1-2 weeks of January at least.
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Dude…I know being a Deb is a coping mechanism, but we’re seeing the transition to the drool worthy euro weekly pattern and you’re complaining about that?
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I know what freaking NYC always is…what about the less lunatic subforums?
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Been busy today. Are we in winter cancel or winter uncancel today?
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Catoctins have had a couple dustings at this point.
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Mid-Atlantic Snow Totals Thread - Winter 2023-2024
WxUSAF replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
T: 12/7/2023 Just won’t stop snowing this winter! -
Light dusting in Harford county per pictures from my sister. I’d guess an area from @mappy over through Cecil county could get something measurable here.
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Based on my calculations, winters where snow has fallen 3 times by December 7 average 63.8” of snow at BWI*. *may not be real statistics
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Flurries in Columbia! #snowtown
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You and @psuhoffmanneed to actually measure your snow this time and not be too snobby for accumulations under 6” or whatever
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Euro still has some snow for N/W areas although less than 12z yesterday. GFS and GGEM only for mountains and areas in PA/NY.
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Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…
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And we’re seeing those differences already. Juicy STJ and we’ve already seen models correct to more +PNA as we get closer in time. This isn’t last year folks.
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Canada torches are supposed to happen in Ninos. If/when we get some drool worthy KU type scenario in January or February, Canada will be mostly AN.
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I remember just staring at my PWS thermometer all damn evening before the storm just willing it colder. Started in the upper 50s and I Think it finally got into the upper 30s by like 10-11pm when I went to bed.
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Definitely started as rain for me for a few hours. I vividly remember waking up during the night and hearing pouring rain on the roof and then the noise went away and I knew it had switched to snow. Had a cold powder event a few days later. Agree with @Ji that January 2022 was a solid winter month.
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Mid-Atlantic Snow Totals Thread - Winter 2023-2024
WxUSAF replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
T: 12/6/2023 -
No, they’re not really. But the one thing that is common to our rain—>snow scenarios is a more Sw-NE oriented front vs very S-N orientation. Euro is getting that tilt more and hence the changeover.
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Was like 6” at my house and I believe had some 10-12” reports S and E of DC. Had a strong gradient with the N and W folks getting actually fringed for once.
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It definitely does happen? A lot of our storms start as rain. The early January 2022 event was deluge rain for 3-4 hours (temps were in the 50s and 60s day before?) and then switched to snow. It takes a certain set of conditions, but it can happen.
