WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Ha, was about to say HH was tee’d up at the end.
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lol I was not very eloquent here and everyone interpreted this as the opposite of what I meant
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I’m not there yet, but getting there. Yeah, more northern stream than previously advertised.
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I’m not quite ready to say I’d be surprised if we’re totally skunked through say January 10, but we’re heading in that direction.
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If our early January HECS doesn’t lock in on the guidance by tomorrow than winter is cancelled!!
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Don’t care that much, but I seem to be one of the very few people who can’t click on post reactions to see who reacted. Phone and computer, neither works for me.
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And GFS/GEFS has a notable strong vortex bias, so extra encouraging to see it onboard as well. Assuming this holds and we get an official SSW around the 3rd, question becomes how fast it impacts the troposphere on our side of the planet.
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Nino phase 3 in January is actually a pretty good look for us.
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You can take the “woe is us it will never snow again” crap to the NYC subforum.
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I’m guessing maybe that’s some brightbanding? CC radar would suggest that.
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6z gfs squashed everything a little too much. 12z phases northern stream a little too much. Average them together = boom.
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We had a few small events in 14-15 prior to mid-February, but people here were absolutely losing their minds because SNE was having an absolute parade of KUs and we were smoking cirrus. The 3-4 weeks starting at Valentine’s Day changed our opinion quickly of that winter.
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Dang…6z teases like 4 times and can’t quite get it together once.
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Yeah baby
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Are you looking at literally anything besides the snow map?
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Possibly. There’s a constant stream of gulf moisture into our area starting on the 4th.
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Maybe we're looking for different things.
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Euro op only runs to D10.
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Departures for the month to date: BWI: +2.9F IAD: +3.2F DCA: +1.9F These will go up from here obviously through next Thursday or so. I’d guess another 1-2.5F in total? Then last few days of the year look BN. I’d guess we end around +4.5F?
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I’m perhaps in the minority in that I’d still be happy with a mixed event. Of the little bit of snow we already get per year, even less of it comes in pure snow events. I’ll take 3-5” that mixes to rain afterward. Just give me some snow I can take a nice Jebwalk in and watch from my window.
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Then it would be suppressed. Hopefully we cash in during the 48 hours the MJO is in phase 8 in early February
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Forgive my bad finger drawing on my phone, but I wanted to highlight this shape in the longwave pattern. This is The Look. Northerly flow into the Midwest and Great Lakes supplying cold air, east-west over us and to our north, troughing in the 50/50 region, and then ridging in Greenland for the -NAO. That broad flat bowl look is what @Bob Chill was mentioning recently.
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Called it way before Webb
