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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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JB promised us Michelangelo’s own personal arctic hounds, so I’m sure it’s coming!
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GEFS seems to like a few days earlier, but there’s a signal roughly at the same time as the eps on the 6z GEFS.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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It somehow unfathomably misses two phases and then partially catches the 3rd. Bizarre.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
This probably will slip away in the end, but at least we have something to watch while we wait for our HECS to lock in at D10 and never waver. -
GEFS has been consistently suppressed for the PD3 wave. 12z looks a little closer but still pretty far south and OTS.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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lol damn that’s a HECS for Raleigh-RIC corridor
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This is basically the solution the gfs had yesterday and the day before with the NS running ahead and the souther steam wave running the boundary. Just a bit farther south. Southeast weenies getting a case of the vapors over this run though…
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah that’s a big jump -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
If someone tries to post a snow depth map, it’s an insta-ban -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
B L U E B-A-B-Y -
Extrapolated 6z gfs looks awful for the psu storm though. Disappointing
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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PD3 is back on 6z gfs. 18-30” for the mountains. 10-15” for the metros.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
DT going with the euro for this event. Wow, didn't see that coming. -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
0z euro is gorgeous…until you look at temps. -
2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread
WxUSAF replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Dq fuq is this? pinned- 563 replies
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I like the setup for V-day a lot. Simple, classic. Just got a shit airmass ahead of it which leads to the need for a needle threading with the northern stream. But if it fails, there’s more chances beyond.
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Only the new gfs could take such a perfect setup and turn it into a rainstorm. I’m sending a strongly worded email to NCEP to correct the 12z run.
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I think we have 3 storm windows right now that we can see in the medium-long range: 13-14th. 18-19th. ~22-25th that you and others have been mentioning for a week already. and I’m sure there would be more chances beyond that.
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12z is the closest yet to a phase. That would be the big dog…
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GEFS looks pretty loaded to me. Mean track for the 13-15 period is to our south. And then a couple periods with something big potentially after the 18th.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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Gfs fumbles the HECS chance, but lots of potential on this run.
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Gfs has a clipper right after that that blue’s us.
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Blend of the GFS (suppressed to Savannah) and GGEM (cutter to Detroit) is pretty good for us for the v-day threat.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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I thought 0z GEFS was the best look yet for that PD period. 6z GEFS a bit more south, but these are all small changes for 15 days out.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
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