WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect.
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SSWs happen in about 60% of seasons in the northern hemisphere. How and if they influence the troposphere is much more variable. The current background forcing: Nino, -PDO, east QBO, and solar forcing is about primo for a SSW this winter. But those factors also already support northern blocking! And that northern blocking forces the SSW, which reinforces that block! So there’s some chicken and the egg arguments here.
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EPS still with a strong signal on the 7th. A little offshore vs our preference, but a good look for a D11-12 event.
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Lowes was done with Christmas last week! But I went to Walmart yesterday morning and got a bunch of lights for 50% off.
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Good thread from Tomer tonight
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See…shamed it into performance!
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GFS working overtime to avoid giving us digital blue after the Christmas miracle fantasy HECS.
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No idea
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The point is that the -PNA is already on its way out as a ridge builds in and the +EPO heads toward an Aleutian low.
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It’s an interesting argument on Twitter and I’m not sure how if this is really a disagreement or just confusion. But it seems 12z eps was a pretty huge outlier from a long trend. So either way I’d wait for some confirmation before jumping off a cliff.
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That plus a SSW will favor a trough east of the Rockies at some time lag after it happens. So if it happens around the 7th, the SSW would start helping that pattern around the 15-20th.
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Solid ensemble agreement for the period around the 6/7th. Still a ways to go. I also like seeing signs that any “mild/relax” period will be pretty short lived. Can already see off/on hints of the trough undercutting the NAO and also reestablishing an aleutian low.
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Lol oh man, that’s like 3 nut punches in a row on the gfs
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Yeah, freezing level is like 950mb in that deform band. It’s low, but also not right at the surface. So I think it would be pouring slush bombs at 34 if it happened like that. But it “should” be a 30-32F pasting.
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I think I agree that there would be at least some snow in that deform band on the back with that look. But the torched boundary layer at that point is pretty alarming and discouraging.
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“Base State: A New Normal (TM)”
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Left some points on the board, but that’s a solid first half.
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Kyle Hamilton = pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.
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Just need to come out of this game healthy. Please.
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lol, I literally looked at this and thought this gfs storm really has it all, Hoffman is even fringed!
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Don’t hold us in suspense!
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Prohibition on post D10 snow maps is rescinded for Christmas.
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Wooo baby, GFS brings some Christmas magic!!
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Merry Christmas! All I want for Christmas is for @psuhoffman’s seasonal snowfall forecast to come true! Go Ravens!
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GEFS also seems to like that 4-5th.
