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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman is right that we’ve seen this -WPO/-NAO combo a bunch in recent years and it has mostly burned us big time. Difference this year is that Niño forcing and the response to the strat vortex weakening *should* move that PAC ridge east into AK and the west coast and it can quickly evolve into a woofwoof KU type pattern. In recent years, Niña forcing reinforces the WPO and hence the western trough and so we only got transient periods when the ridge moved east.
  2. WxUSAF
    Working outside in short sleeves as one does on…December 28?
  3. WxUSAF
    Positive vibes from (checks notes) Eric Webb?
  4. WxUSAF
    To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect.
  5. WxUSAF
    SSWs happen in about 60% of seasons in the northern hemisphere. How and if they influence the troposphere is much more variable. The current background forcing: Nino, -PDO, east QBO, and solar forcing is about primo for a SSW this winter. But those factors also already support northern blocking! And that northern blocking forces the SSW, which reinforces that block! So there’s some chicken and the egg arguments here.
  6. WxUSAF
    EPS still with a strong signal on the 7th. A little offshore vs our preference, but a good look for a D11-12 event.
  7. WxUSAF
    Lowes was done with Christmas last week! But I went to Walmart yesterday morning and got a bunch of lights for 50% off.
  8. WxUSAF
    Good thread from Tomer tonight
  9. WxUSAF
    See…shamed it into performance!
  10. WxUSAF
    GFS working overtime to avoid giving us digital blue after the Christmas miracle fantasy HECS.
  11. WxUSAF
    No idea
  12. WxUSAF
    The point is that the -PNA is already on its way out as a ridge builds in and the +EPO heads toward an Aleutian low.
  13. WxUSAF
    It’s an interesting argument on Twitter and I’m not sure how if this is really a disagreement or just confusion. But it seems 12z eps was a pretty huge outlier from a long trend. So either way I’d wait for some confirmation before jumping off a cliff.
  14. WxUSAF
    That plus a SSW will favor a trough east of the Rockies at some time lag after it happens. So if it happens around the 7th, the SSW would start helping that pattern around the 15-20th.
  15. WxUSAF
    Solid ensemble agreement for the period around the 6/7th. Still a ways to go. I also like seeing signs that any “mild/relax” period will be pretty short lived. Can already see off/on hints of the trough undercutting the NAO and also reestablishing an aleutian low.
  16. WxUSAF
    Lol oh man, that’s like 3 nut punches in a row on the gfs
  17. WxUSAF
    Yeah, freezing level is like 950mb in that deform band. It’s low, but also not right at the surface. So I think it would be pouring slush bombs at 34 if it happened like that. But it “should” be a 30-32F pasting.
  18. WxUSAF
    I think I agree that there would be at least some snow in that deform band on the back with that look. But the torched boundary layer at that point is pretty alarming and discouraging.
  19. WxUSAF
    “Base State: A New Normal (TM)”
  20. WxUSAF
    Left some points on the board, but that’s a solid first half.
  21. WxUSAF
    Kyle Hamilton = pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.
  22. WxUSAF
    Just need to come out of this game healthy. Please.
  23. WxUSAF
    lol, I literally looked at this and thought this gfs storm really has it all, Hoffman is even fringed!
  24. WxUSAF
    Don’t hold us in suspense!
  25. WxUSAF
    Prohibition on post D10 snow maps is rescinded for Christmas.
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