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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Yeah they usually are pretty simpatico, so I’d expect GGEM to be similar if maybe a little tamer overall.
  2. WxUSAF
    Let’s not do this “it won’t accumulate” game for the 1081st time please. Could 10:1 be too high? Sure. But I will bet my retirement fund that if 10:1 shows 3-4” that falls in 6 hours, the snow depth won’t be 0.0”.
  3. WxUSAF
    Oooohhh…that’s encouraging. Tossing 6z euro with extreme prejudice!
  4. WxUSAF
    My quick look at 6z euro was that it jumped back to that “worst of both worlds” scenario from 6z/12z yesterday with a stronger vortmax and more phasing, but not enough to get back to that strong storm scenario from 48-72 hours ago. It was a fairly big jump from 0z. We’ll see what happens at 12z!
  5. WxUSAF
    Good morning all, glad we came back overnight. I agree with something @Deck Pic said a few pages ago. Those of us in the metro corridor I think should be rooting for a big WAA thump in the 20-0z time period Saturday I think. Pile up some mashed potatoes quick and then it’s already dark by the time it flips to rain. And it’s probably all over before midnight Sunday.
  6. WxUSAF
    If there’s been any real trend over the last 24-48 hours, I think it’s been away from a big phased system and toward a weaker southern wave sliding east alone. 18z gfs is the biggest step yet on that. That removes the big upside potential, but maybe allows us to get something respectable still?
  7. WxUSAF
    Trend seems to be for all the green, yellow, and red spots to completely change positions?
  8. WxUSAF
    At this trend rate, the storm’s going to give us all 130-150” by Saturday.
  9. WxUSAF
    I think happy hour did what I suggested earlier and continued the weakening trend and more southerly primary enough to let cold air hang on. Boom.
  10. WxUSAF
    It’s like 2-5mb?
  11. WxUSAF
    Op runs at 4 days plus? Always going to be variable. As @dallen7908s posts show, even ensembles have only bought in for about 48 hours for the cities. IMO if the Thursday 0z runs show mostly/all rain for the metro corridor, then it’s pretty unlikely to bounce back to mostly snow. But this is a pretty standard mid-Atlantic winter storm…mixing issues, sharp gradient in snow amounts, elevation important, subtle factors could make a big sensible weather impact.
  12. WxUSAF
    I feel so confident that we’ll get snow in the last 2 weeks of January that I may start a thread for it now.
  13. WxUSAF
    Saw some eps maps in the other subforums and it looks decent? Maybe a tick better than 6z? Seems like that really high end totals are unlikely due to faster motion. But advisory to warning level for many very much on the table.
  14. WxUSAF
    Ok makes sense. Hopefully we can wobble back or find another path to a mostly snow outcome. Still have time.
  15. WxUSAF
    Vs 0z or 6z? I did a quick comparison vs 0z using the maps on pivotal. Seems like it’s the general “all features are a bit weaker and hence warmer”, but not a total ratter.
  16. WxUSAF
    I mentioned this earlier, but I wonder if there’s another path where this thing gets a little weaker with time and hence a farther south track. That could also keep our column colder. Right now may be a “worst of both worlds” scenario. Dunno, just speculating.
  17. WxUSAF
    All things being equal, the surface low track is MORE canonical for DC-Baltimore snowstorms than 0z. Low goes offshore near VA/NC border and then east of OCMD. But it’s become abundantly clear with the 12z suite that we want a stronger storm with more northern stream energy to keep the cold air in place.
  18. WxUSAF
    That’s good in this case! We don’t want the PV squashing everything to Florida. That weak SE ridge keeps the baroclinic zone nearby. I kinda like that look a lot…
  19. WxUSAF
    Good news is that this could easily bounce back the other way. If you look at H5, the northern stream has been shifting quite a bit. This isn’t the final solution. But it highlights the sensitivities.
  20. WxUSAF
    Devil is in the details of how the shortwaves interact and phase. Weaker northern stream energy seems to hurt as compared to some snowier solutions.
  21. WxUSAF
    This trend seems good to me
  22. WxUSAF
    Wasn’t 6z GEFS and 0z euro some of the best runs we’ve seen? Lol. Let’s not get nuts here.
  23. WxUSAF
    Yeah, GEFS has caved to the EPS/GEPS look as @psuhoffman predicted.
  24. WxUSAF
    Thanks chief. I’m driving to your yard and stealing all your snow on Sunday morning.
  25. WxUSAF
    Yeah I’ve noticed that the storm for tomorrow and Thursday has trended south and weaker. There’s probably a balance here if the same thing happens with the weekend storm. South is good for us generally, but weaker is maybe a double edged sword. Weak and north is bad because it doesn’t wrap in colder air, but maybe weaker and south balances that back out? Just speculation. Nobody should be spiking footballs or bailing on 1 run 100+ hours out.
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