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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Flurries in Columbia per Mrs WxUSAF. Long range pattern verified!!
  2. WxUSAF
    Could go down like that. Most strong Ninos give us a 3-5 week heater and comes down to how many times we can capitalize.
  3. WxUSAF
    To be fair, it was pretty obvious by this time last year that we were almost certainly cooked. We weren’t even teased with D10-15 longwave patterns.
  4. WxUSAF
    Ha, I was literally coming to say that, for illustrative purposes, this is a potential big dog look. PV trapped under the -NAO with a strong southern stream wave forced to move W-E across the conus with arctic air locked in.
  5. WxUSAF
    Bummer. Good luck far N/W folks! This doesn’t look like the one that’s going to break the record long streak without 1” of snow for any of DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC. Maybe IAD still has a chance?
  6. WxUSAF
    I guess. I think by 0z or 12z tomorrow the synoptic details are down to noise level changes and it just comes down to a few degrees in the 800mb to surface column. 18z is very slightly colder than 12z at 0z Sunday. Sharper temp gradient too. Still thumpy to start in the 18-21z period Saturday.
  7. WxUSAF
    Could about walk from places with <1” to 8”. Razor thin gradient.
  8. WxUSAF
    RGEM has that N-S oriented trough of warm air aloft like 12z euro.
  9. WxUSAF
    Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch.
  10. WxUSAF
    Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke.
  11. WxUSAF
    That inverted trough (trowal maybe?) is sort of the killer. Not sure how real that feature is. I actually though euro looked decent/good before it got to us.
  12. WxUSAF
    In happier news, GEFS has The Look starting MLK weekend. PV trapped under a mega -NAO/AO with some ridging developing out west.
  13. WxUSAF
    That’s basically what the Ukie was also
  14. WxUSAF
    Then you’re in much better shape than the cities. I know the urban core of Towson can be warm though, so that’s something to watch as you get familiar with the microclimates in the area.
  15. WxUSAF
    I’ve seen the option C in the ensemble mix (I think based on snow maps posted), but not sure any op run has pulled that out (yet). Ops seem to be switching between A and B or some blend between them. Let hope Euro can pull a B here…
  16. WxUSAF
    It depends lol. And 95 is also close to, but not exactly the “fall line”. The fall line is the boundary between the coastal plain and the piedmont and elevation goes up between them. Your elevation and amount of urban heat island your particular location has is a big deal for snow totals in our area.
  17. WxUSAF
    Yeah it really sped up. Even if some of the bigger totals that have been shown came to pass, not good timing for snow day hopefuls on Monday.
  18. WxUSAF
    My snowboard is at 378.4251969 feet per the LiDAR map.
  19. WxUSAF
    Looks qualitatively consistent with gfs and GGEM with a solid thump and then mixing dependent on location.
  20. WxUSAF
    Agreed. I’ll start the thread. In all honesty, the pattern is just super active starting this weekend. And there is arctic air nearby. Going to be a lot of precip either way I think.
  21. WxUSAF
    GGEM has snow into the cities before the absolute deluge next week. Gfs is damn close also. Both are big hits for I81 corridor.
  22. WxUSAF
    All the 12z guidance so far suggests the metro corridor and points N/W will really thump when the precipitation arrives. Your IMBY total will depend on ratios and how long you can hold the column. But if that GFS sounding is right, it’s puking fatties until the flip.
  23. WxUSAF
    Dear lord that’s a brutal gradient. Going to be riots if that plays out.
  24. WxUSAF
    GFS is interesting. It has a stronger vortmax in the plains and so I thought if would maybe follow 6z euro. And it does end up a bit stronger/norther, but the WAA thump is legit. You don’t get soundings like this often from the GFS. This is legit heavy snow for a few hours Saturday afternoon.
  25. WxUSAF
    “There’s not going to be a snow day Monday” boom done
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