WxUSAF
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I know this is pretty broad brushed, but I think it’s actually a bit under climo for most? This is Fox5 in DC https://twitter.com/taylorgrenda/status/1717497400871248245?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA
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South trend?
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Your standard strong/super Nino with a roided-out Aleutian ridge. Sure Jan.
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itshappening.gif
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37 for the low
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Low of 40
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I think this years schedule is “on paper” maybe the toughest schedule I can recall them having between the opponents plus travel and the way it’s laid out. Still they’re 5-2 and probably should be 7-0.
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The good news is the ravens are up 28. The bad news is there’s still 30 mins of football.
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Lamar putting on a clinic so far
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My feeling as well. Probably going to be some head scratching things this winter with the Nino behavior plus other factors like HTHH, PDO, and QBO. But I agree that we probably get something in December and then hopefully a couple 2-3 week heaters in mid January-early March?
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DT “preliminary” winter forecast is leaning @Jebman-like https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf
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I’ve gotten more optimistic over the last few weeks. Don’t think this is 09-10 returned, but think it may feel like it after last year. We’ll be tracking.
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Got almost entirely skipped
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You freaking nailed it dude
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With a few torchy days next week looking likely, about certain October ends up AN. But still a chance for first freeze depending how that series of plains storms develops. Some broader factors suggest we should get a good cold push sometime Halloween week.
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12z GGEM has a scenario for late next week that would be light snow 3-4 weeks later and isn’t far off verbatim. Wave runs along the strong cold front after it pushes south with a few tenths of an inch precip.
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41.5 for the low
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For perspective, Caribou, ME, hasn’t even hit 36F yet.
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Yes. 91-92 could have been a pretty great winter with a Nino and -QBO! Pinatubo ruined that.
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There’s a fair bit of research on the AO response to Pinatubo so we don’t have to handwave. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999jd900213 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003699 The upshot is that the AO was more positive because of Pinatubo and possibly particularly because of the QBO forcing enhancing the volcanic aerosol effect. The AO was super positive in 92-93 and that was due to a combination of +QBO and lingering aerosol.
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Next Tuesday looks like the first chance possibly for IAD and maybe BWI.
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-EPO is cold for the east US
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Find something you love as much as the ravens love keeping inferior teams in the game
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Probably could be 30-3 at half but I’ll take it
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About 0.6”
