WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Euro op kinda had my scenario from yesterday with a cutter (although it wasn’t a full on cutter) turn into a confluence source and put a follow on storm on a good track.
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Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier.
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Yeah duration of warm ups have been modest. Although amplitude of warmups still outdoes the cold. 3 airports all just barely BN for the month.
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Well you lucky bastards fell backasswards into something nice, didn’t you? Enjoy!
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It will be AN after Xmas, but doesn’t seem like a real multi day torch for our area. If we have a really warm day it’s probably with a cutter and fairly short lived.
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Wife reports beautiful fluffy flakes in Baltimore. I can report sadness in Columbia.
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Mostly rain again now. An occasional flake.
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Mixing on and off with rain and drizzle here. When it gets slightly heavier the snow fraction increases.
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A few snowflakes in Columbia
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Puff puff pass
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An evolution that seems plausible based on long range guidance would be: 1. 1-2 strong cutters wave break during the Dec 29-Jan 2 period. This builds the NAO ridging. 2. They being in a cool, but not cold airmass for Jan 3-5. 3. Their remnants park in the 50/50 zone and provide confluence. 4. Another s/w approaches with a good track and acceptable airmass. 5. Profit
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Euro has snowtv for central MD and NoVA Friday. Temps too warm though for accumulation. That IVT feature looks really nice for Philly area and Jersey…
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Yes. This I like.
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Gfs kinda has this at the end, but I’d expect one or even a couple really wound up cutters around NYD that helps reset the pattern toward a more favorable configuration. If we’re lucky, a proclivity for big precip producers will continue after cold air returns.
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Monday morning low temp forecast: GGEM: low 0s (lol) Euro: low-mid 10s GFS: mid-upper 20s
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GGEM gifts central MD a white Xmas miracle
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I believe so
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NE MD pummeled!
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Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades?
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Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay.
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lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s.
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Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday.
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All Hail Der Kaiser!
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After Friday-Saturday, there’s maybe a Hail Mary window right around Xmas. GGEM showed this last night. But otherwise, we’re shitting the blinds until first weekend in January I think. And agree with @psuhoffman that winter probably turns based on how much we cash in during January. I hold little hope for February and March this year given cool ENSO climo.
