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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman…yeah, @MN Transplant picked up on that earlier. Euro is stronger than other guidance with that lead s/w that moves through the Midwest. BUT…it was notably weaker with it (and more energy left behind) at 12z vs 0z. That’s more of an issue than the kicker. One more step of equal magnitude and euro probably looks like todays gfs.
  2. WxUSAF
    Kicker is also weaker yet again. Lots of positive steps here with 12z euro.
  3. WxUSAF
    I’m behind Randy, but at 78hrs, the TPV is much less suppressive and more energy is concentrated west in the trough. Less energy in the front running s/w.
  4. WxUSAF
    I’m only out to 66 on pivotal and can only compare to 0z. But I like it more than 0z for sure.
  5. WxUSAF
    Maybe I’ll start up my snowblower at home today. Extra heat and pollution into the air here will help increase heights ahead of the storm and push it back toward us.
  6. WxUSAF
    Oh ha, you’re right. That’s the last update on TT lol
  7. WxUSAF
    It’s actually pretty gorgeous
  8. WxUSAF
    Anyone have 13z NBM?
  9. WxUSAF
    Yes
  10. WxUSAF
    H/T to @mitchnick: Ukie is amped. 995mb over ACY.
  11. WxUSAF
    Reminder GEFS had almost nothing until 18z yesterday. And now we’re at D4 or less so I’d expect it will follow the op largely.
  12. WxUSAF
    Feb 2015 did. But otherwise I think the coldest days the last 7 years have been of the frozen mud variety.
  13. WxUSAF
    If we can get snowcover, I’d say widespread single digit lows are pretty likely.
  14. WxUSAF
    With not unreasonable ratios, GGEM says I’m approaching climo by next Saturday lol
  15. WxUSAF
    I love when long term pattern recognition works out.
  16. WxUSAF
    IMO, Icon, GFS, and GGEM are all solutions that have been in the envelope of the storm for the past 48 hours. Differences are in shortwave details. I don’t see any of them as “moving toward the euro” , at least in isolation.
  17. WxUSAF
    GGEM is 6-9” right among 95. Gradient is over @usedtobes house. @psuhoffmanslightly fringed.
  18. WxUSAF
    Differences between runs are again with how shortwaves 2 and 3 interact and how strong they are. 6z gfs had a lot more interaction between them.
  19. WxUSAF
    GGEM doesn’t look like a complete phase, but looks pretty good.
  20. WxUSAF
    Through 96 it’s southeast of 0z, but it’s a big storm and it’s turning up the coast…
  21. WxUSAF
    Ya’ll need to wait for the run to finish. It sort of splits the storm into 2 pieces. I think one of yesterdays runs did this too?
  22. WxUSAF
    It’s not the euro, that’s for damn sure
  23. WxUSAF
    That’s encouraging actually. WPC said that was missing yesterday and they wanted to see what it showed. It looks much more in-line with other guidance. I have no idea how useful it is, but if WPC wanted to see it, I’m glad it’s better for us. @wxmvpete?
  24. WxUSAF
    Ok, so WPC not favoring Euro’s non-storm scenario. Nice to see.
  25. WxUSAF
    WPC’s discussion today will be interesting to see how they interpret this euro vs the world scenario. And in my quick glance, the euro op remains an outlier in its own ensemble mean, even though eps has continued to inch weaker/OTS.
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