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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    12z GGEM follows RGEM for central TX with mostly clear skies. Gfs remains fugly.
  2. WxUSAF
    Don’t know precisely. Apparently the GFS has a cloudy bias, particularly for cirrus. But I’m going to hug it until totality.
  3. WxUSAF
    #TeamCanada go RGEM!!
  4. WxUSAF
    Oh my
  5. WxUSAF
    Was on the ground floor of the building at that time and didn’t feel it. Looks like a few reports in our area though.
  6. WxUSAF
    Tomer changed his % of clear sky solar radiation metrics to 85/60-85/<60, which wasn’t favorable for TX lol. I’m still hugging the GGEM which looks mostly clear for me during eclipse.
  7. WxUSAF
    Those nurseries usually specify sun or shade and soil type mixes
  8. WxUSAF
    @Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally???
  9. WxUSAF
    Hugging the hell outta the 12z GGEM
  10. WxUSAF
    Yup. That was one of my prime criteria in 2017.
  11. WxUSAF
    All I’d recommend is picking your spot, get there early, and leave well after totality. Most people will get back in the car right after totality ends. Stay put for another few hours and hopefully traffic calms down.
  12. WxUSAF
    I haven’t done a meadow mix. I got some native grass seed and spread some of that with mixed results.
  13. WxUSAF
    Tomer’s eclipse city dashboard shows 77% of ensemble members have “favorable” or “somewhat favorable” conditions for eclipse viewing west of Austin. Despite the NBM showing 65-80% cloud cover. So maybe that implies just thin cirrus?? That’s what I’m hoping for at this point. I’ll definitely take the under on just about any prediction of convective cloud cover around the totality path. As I recall from 2017, only the hrrr actually accounted for the reduction in insolation? And it made a visible difference in cumulus coverage.
  14. WxUSAF
    Windshield is all frozen
  15. WxUSAF
    Low of 33.
  16. WxUSAF
    Prairie Nursery and other online nurseries have seed mixes that would probably work for that.
  17. WxUSAF
    Think I had some in Greenbelt just now eta…definitely thunder and lightning
  18. WxUSAF
    Yeah MBY has to be pushing 3” for the week
  19. WxUSAF
    Interpolating CoCoRaHS, I’m between 2 and 3”.
  20. WxUSAF
    TX and the Ohio area seem like a zero sum game. Improvement for one means worse weather for the other. Slower progression and a weaker system of that initial low increases cloud and shower chances for TX it seems.
  21. WxUSAF
    Apparently GFS has a known bias to overdo cloud cover. I’ve seen that a few places over the last week.
  22. WxUSAF
    It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy.
  23. WxUSAF
    0z ops look workable? GGEM has clear skies for the eclipse verbatim! Looks like a band of showers moves through Sunday at some point but most of Monday is dry right now. 0z GFS actually has the scenario I was rooting for with the energy more consolidated in the storm that moves into the Plains on Sunday and nothing hanging behind. p.s. NBM cloud map from Pivotal is the best I’ve seen it yet!
  24. WxUSAF
    I’ve got nonrefundable hotel and airline. I’m coming to Texas. The rain will be dark at least.
  25. WxUSAF
    @MN Transplant I think you’re right for TX. Based on my experience in 2017, the reduced solar will suppress convection for 2-3 hours centered on totality. Cumulus field totally dissipated in South Carolina in 2017 when I was there and reformed after. Still seems like best case for TX is for the storm/trough to be more consolidated and push through with force Sunday and clear behind on Monday. Trend on guidance though is for another shortwave to dump into the trough and get stuck near the 4 corners area.
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