WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Which comes next? White Christmas or 75F+ Christmas?
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Today could be the rare day with a midnight high and midnight low! BWI was 45 last night at midnight and temp will likely slowly drop overnight.
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We need that initial wave to be stronger and drag the boundary south of us. The potential snow-producing wave can’t be the one to pull the cold air in. Then we’re chasing moisture with cold.
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Haven’t seen many spotter reports (slackers!), but based on social media pictures, the Carroll-Baltimore-Harford counties area got a solid 0.5”+ this morning.
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Family in bel air said coming down well and even accumulating on the road in this burst. Just rain near Greenbelt.
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Did it accumulate?
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Currier and Ives wrote about that I think
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A NWS employee in Elkridge reported 0.1” at 11pm last night. Anyone nearby confirm? @Scraff?
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To my eye, all 3 ensembles appear in the process of redeveloping western ridging at the end of their runs. GEPS is fastest and GEFS is slowest, with EPS in the middle. Also been a notable guidance trend toward more ridging over the pole the last couple days and it continues through the ensemble periods. That can’t hurt.
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95-96!!
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Uh…was that it?? Mrs. WxUSAF heard sleet against the window overnight
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From the plots of it I’ve see on Twitter, euro weeklies today emphatically say winter is coming back around Xmas.
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Euro fantasy range also with the “heckuva way to run a blowtorch” arctic blast. 12z yesterday did that too.
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Euro doesn’t go to gfs strength, but kinda the idea and does strengthen the precursors enough to drag in cold air.
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It’s a foregone conclusion that one of next weeks AN anomalies will be greater in magnitude than any of the recent BN anomalies, right?
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GGEM/icon track with gfs strength is sort of the mix we need to have a chance outside the mountains
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20.7 low so far. Ties Sunday morning.
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If we get 50 days of winter that have BN temps, I’ll take the over on 1” of snow.
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Only thing I see trackable in the next 10 days is the follow up wave late next week. If we can get that cutter around the 10th to drag in some cold air and time the follow up wave correctly, could get something wintry.
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Didn’t you all hear? @psuhoffman got 4” in November. Rocking winter inbound.
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3k NAM brings a snow squall line through the metros Thursday morning. Hrrr has it as well, but rain. NAM is notably colder ahead of that squall. Not sure why.
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Congrats to those who got some snow. Happy for you all. mostly…
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GEFSX and euro weeklies both transition back to this sort of look pretty quickly. Trough doesn’t seem to get stuck out west.
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JB a lot of hype??? Nnooooooo I don’t think we want a SSW this winter. Or at least not now. From what I’ve read, SSWs in this QBO and ENSO phase are more likely to make Siberia colder than us. They’re a gamble even in favorable conditions and odds are more stacked against favoring our hemisphere this year. Maybe we need a Hail Mary type ssw in early February to keep some winter going into March.
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I think a raging PAC jet crashing into western Canada is not likely. The trop PV over Hudson Bay will provide a ready cold air source. I don’t see Canada getting scoured out.
