WxUSAF

^my interpretation of 10:1 vs Kuchera going off those maps is that, like @Bob Chill was saying, any snow that falls later in the afternoon is high ratio fluff. Main round is basically 10:1.

Daytime snow…will need sunblock again for my Jebwalk

This is my thought as well. 8-9” season to date by Jan 20 is solid if not spectacular. Very sporting chance for climo+, although the really gaudy 150%+ of climo will take an incredible run.

DT’s actual snow map went from about 1” for me to 4” so I guess I’ll take it!

DT has been posting these start time maps and they are completely unintelligible

Good catch @psuhoffman. We’ll take it.

In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the surface is fairly chilled at this time.

Gtfo with snow depth maps

Well he had 1” for most of us on first guess. So hopefully second provisional forecast map is better.

Work for a bit, pick phone back up, 69 new posts on the storm thread… NICE

For now that’s what I’m thinking.

For those who care, WBAL updated to 1-3” for most, 3-4” for immediate M/D line area, and 0-1” for far southern MD.

Low of 14 around 2am. Now up to 21.

Euro’s my ride or die. Let’s go. That said, 6z gfs looks like a good shift for immediate DC area.

I think the pattern leading in and out are different, but I think the idea of a transitional period makes sense.

I'm guessing no, but will be full go for AFC championship (fingers crossed the Ravens are hosting it).

I'll believe that when I see it. MJO guidance is notorious for too slow/too weak progression.

If the 3 airports all get ~1.5-2" on Friday, they'll be above normal snowfall to-date for the winter. Now I agree that we've missed on a few chances and/or missed on things going better than they did. And we probably won't add any snow after Friday until February, so then we'll be back below normal. So if the next 10-12 days go as we think they do, my December-January winter grade would be a C. But to get the super AN snow winter like @psuhoffman's prediction, we're gonna need a pretty historic run for February and March. Like 1 HECS and 1-2 MECS/SECS events. My call of slightly AN snow is still very much attainable I think.

They actually showed the Euro just now on their broadcast, so better than when they were showing the HRRR on the 6pm news Monday.

After being very stubborn with only 1-3" for Monday-Tuesday, WBAL of course flips to too bullish for Friday with widespread 2-4".

I haven’t been paying attention much, but I like the looks around the end of January.

Was about to post something about this. It’s not a big change from recent runs around the end of the month, but has faster and stronger return to high latitude blocking. Gradient pattern suggested with cold pressing from the north. I could get into that.

Slight north shift on some guidance, which isn’t overly shocking with a northern stream dominated system. Hopefully it’s about done…

7.2F final low