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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    No idea where this came from and looks nothing like GEFS or EPS, but it is nice to look at.
  2. WxUSAF
    Very doubtful, not that JB would ever admit that.
  3. WxUSAF
    Don’t need a SSW for major cold and snow. A weak, wobbly strat vortex is just fine.
  4. WxUSAF
    Same. Chop up leaves and mow it short to make our 1 slushy dusting in late January more picturesque!
  5. WxUSAF
    2.05”
  6. WxUSAF
    0.85” so far
  7. WxUSAF
    Next week looking quite cold but dry. Fate of the winter hangs in the balance of getting a small accumulation over 1 acre of our subforum.
  8. WxUSAF
    I’m declaring a SEVERE LEAF DROP WARNING for the entire region for the next 48 hours.
  9. WxUSAF
    Not yet. Still things in November we’re watching.
  10. WxUSAF
    @snowman19 again, that pattern Roundy shows is quite different than anything Webb is suggesting.
  11. WxUSAF
    Oh I’m sure. Just was laughing to myself with Webb thinking Roundy’s post validated his super-Nino east CONUS December torch prediction when it looks quite the opposite.
  12. WxUSAF
    I know Webb didn’t, but did you bother to click on Roundy’s link and see that the pattern he’s showing looks very NON-torchy for the east CONUS??
  13. WxUSAF
    GGEM and Euro both have a pretty tasty setup around Saturday/Sunday. Neither really come together, but the players are there with a transient 50/50, fresh high coming in on top of low forming in the Plains and riding the thermal boundary eastward. Both models have another northern stream shortwave come in and mix everything up.
  14. WxUSAF
    FWIW (not much), yesterdays GEFS extended has similarities around Xmas.
  15. WxUSAF
    Webb responded to his tweet with something basically like “yup, called that December torch!” I wanna be like “Bra, did you even click the link??”
  16. WxUSAF
    Pattern shown around Xmas at Roundy’s link would get a lot of fans
  17. WxUSAF
    All of these type of stats are very small sample size. I think that’s a meaningless quirk.
  18. WxUSAF
    Nino!!
  19. WxUSAF
    Good pull @aldie 22. My main takeaway there is a fairly obvious one: if we want until January for the first snowfall, it’s probably going to be a BN snowfall winter.
  20. WxUSAF
    Stillers again gonna fall backassward into a win with like 150 yards of total offense. Making me nuts
  21. WxUSAF
    Also some mixed precipitation D9. Euro and GGEM have stopped cankicking cold air and a potentially favorable pattern for now. They both bring in some cold air next Sunday and maintain if after. GFS still is mostly a hot mess of inconsistency.
  22. WxUSAF
    It’s November 19. You probably should throw the towel.
  23. WxUSAF
    There’s plenty of confounding factors this year though that will create enough doubt if it comes to pass. Hunga Tonga, PDO, weird Nino behavior, etc. Plus, as mentioned, we have strong Nino shutouts in the past. So while maybe some of us will think this is another brick in the inevitable wall, others will just shrug.
  24. WxUSAF
    97-98 had like 3 would-be HECS with temps near 40. Only the highest elevations in the Apps got any snow at all from them I think.
  25. WxUSAF
    Oh I feel pretty sure this winter is going to be confusing enough to give both arguments ammunition. Like maybe we will get JUST above normal snow but barely miss on a few chances to have a blockbuster winter.
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