Jump to content

WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    25,308

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    A period of -PNA to start December has been very well modeled and expected for like a week? And it’s also been seasonally expected for December by almost all monthly or seasonal outlooks?
  2. WxUSAF
    18z hrrr has flurries/snow showers Tuesday through MD
  3. WxUSAF
    Should be Tuesday morning. Right??
  4. WxUSAF
    On the same page. After the 6th or so we’re at least back “in the game” for something wintry if things align right. That’s about as good as we get usually and especially in December compared to recent years. Hopefully we can time something up.
  5. WxUSAF
    One important detail to note about this upcoming -NAO dominated pattern. The -PNA that’s also coming later this week and weekend is going to really scour out all the cold air on the continent. And that takes some time to regenerate in situ. So you see a gorgeous H5 pattern on the ensembles like this on and after the 6th or 7th and think we’re back to frigid temps and …nah.
  6. WxUSAF
    At least one very compelling date here
  7. WxUSAF
    You mean Twitter?
  8. WxUSAF
    Below freezing already
  9. WxUSAF
    Nearby WDI at record highs
  10. WxUSAF
    34
  11. WxUSAF
    25.9 for the low. Coldest of the season so far.
  12. WxUSAF
    Will the -NAO save winter? Will Hoffman get his 1"? Will we be wearing bikinis for Xmas?
  13. WxUSAF
    Starting a new thread...
  14. WxUSAF
    DCA might be relying on an intrahour...
  15. WxUSAF
    I agree. As currently depicted, it's a "real" -NAO. I think he's splitting hairs that it's not forming through the one way of a Scandinavian ridge that retrogrades into the NAO domain. But Rossby wave breaking is also a very "real" way for a -NAO to form, and that's what's happening here. One thing I'm watching for is the orientation of the ridge. I want to see it develop that E-W orientation that's being advertised, and not just N-S. An E-W ridge over Greenland and Baffin is FAR more effective than a poleward oriented ridge over Greenland or Iceland.
  16. WxUSAF
    Webb is very rapidly flipping to JB level bullish on this winter lol
  17. WxUSAF
    Skepticism isn’t a bad plan given recent years. But we do have a good pattern starting basically today through next weekend. Just doesn’t look like it will do much for us except BN temps. This new -NAO dominated pattern after the 7th is still a recent arrival on guidance so caution is warranted. GEFS actually brings it in faster today on the 12z run. So far the opposite of cankicking.
  18. WxUSAF
    I’ve got reds in all the right places!
  19. WxUSAF
    -NAO come at ya fast
  20. WxUSAF
    Bingo
  21. WxUSAF
    Euro has a pretty good setup at D10. Looks like a setup for a snow to rain type deal. Euro control run may show something. Although it’s obvious next week’s cold won’t stick around to March, doesn’t look like we flip to a shit the blinds kinda pattern. So that’s good. Keep December 2015 outta here.
  22. WxUSAF
    I want a lot of events as well, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing for you to make.
  23. WxUSAF
    Happy thanksgiving!
  24. WxUSAF
    BWI: 22.6” DCA: 17.4” IAD: 25.1” RIC: 12.5” SBY: 11.9”
  25. WxUSAF
    You’re not wrong. Most of this discussion is following from one of Webb’s tweets today discussing that -NAO Decembers in Ninos usually suggest persistent -NAO for the whole winter. Even though the EPS plot @CAPE showed above is improved from 0z, it’s not a cold/snow pattern because of that strong -PNA.
×
×
  • Create New...