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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    ^there’s more after that on Thursday
  2. WxUSAF
    Rain about to start in immediate DC area
  3. WxUSAF
    Gfs notably wetter for most of the metro areas
  4. WxUSAF
    Icon staying in the rainy camp. RGEM got juicer vs 6z. My quick read of the wetter models is that they delay the development of the secondary (?) low off the coast relative to the dry models.
  5. WxUSAF
    Literally a 10” range in rainfall forecasts over the next 48 hours lol
  6. WxUSAF
    Dang. I’d love for it to be right.
  7. WxUSAF
    Once upon a time, euro+NAM agreement <24 hours until game time was money in the bank
  8. WxUSAF
    Looks like mid October under my red maple
  9. WxUSAF
    Euro is juicer for immediate DC but dry for NE MD. Quite a gradient. Not sure whether to overseed or not…
  10. WxUSAF
    Hires FV3 and 3k NAM are like inverses of each other as to where the heavy rain goes
  11. WxUSAF
    It’s actually sprinkling in Ellicott city
  12. WxUSAF
    Pathetic day for Baltimore sports
  13. WxUSAF
    Incredible
  14. WxUSAF
    No signs of any change Not from over 50. Inside 50 yes
  15. WxUSAF
  16. WxUSAF
    Looks like over seeding is back on the menu for Monday evening!
  17. WxUSAF
    @Jebman needs to be watching Austrian webcams
  18. WxUSAF
    Just when I think the O’s have hit rock bottom, they keep digging.
  19. WxUSAF
    12z global blend is about 2” for you next week. Still several days out and probably still touchy with details given the weakly forced environment.
  20. WxUSAF
    Big euro fold to gfs/GGEM solution. Looks quite similar now.
  21. WxUSAF
    Drought stress is certainly contributing, but I’m feeling cautiously optimistic for good color IMBY at least. The early color change that’s starting has some bright colors as opposed to the very dull ones last year. Lots of rain in late July through mid August and then a dry and slightly cool month since?
  22. WxUSAF
    You all obviously can cash in early, but we typically still struggle in December even with favorable patterns. Especially the lowlands. The last week of the month or into January is much more favorable. Although the total lack of notable winter weather in Xmas-NYE week here for a LONG time seems like a statistical fluke. Mid-December has been the window for small events since we had the December 5th run like 20 years ago. Very little after the 18-20th until January.
  23. WxUSAF
    Speaking of fragile. Euro and icon mostly flaked out overnight. Just sort of meander something offshore, although southern half of the area still gets good rain on the euro. Gfs/GGEM hold with a clear low pressure moving onshore and into the area with heavy rain.
  24. WxUSAF
    All the globals have the coastal tropical-ish rainmaker next week. Euro/Icon solution seems most fragile whereas Gfs/GGEM have a stronger defined low come onshore.
  25. WxUSAF
    I agree they haven’t been a fun watch for awhile now. They can come out of it, but just doesn’t seem to be happening.
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