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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Gfs fumbles the HECS chance, but lots of potential on this run.
  2. WxUSAF
    Gfs has a clipper right after that that blue’s us.
  3. WxUSAF
    Blend of the GFS (suppressed to Savannah) and GGEM (cutter to Detroit) is pretty good for us for the v-day threat.
  4. WxUSAF
    I thought 0z GEFS was the best look yet for that PD period. 6z GEFS a bit more south, but these are all small changes for 15 days out.
  5. WxUSAF
    Looks not dry
  6. WxUSAF
    EPS weeklies are dry with the progression with that H5 look Brooklynn posted??
  7. WxUSAF
    @griteater…could this strat weakening be similar to early January? Where a growing -NAO helped weaken the strat vortex which reinforced -NAO?
  8. WxUSAF
    All those ensemble means showing troughing in the 50/50 region as well. I don’t know if we get a HECS, but seems like it would take incredible bad luck to not get a really nice event later this month.
  9. WxUSAF
    Sucks for NYC-BOS.
  10. WxUSAF
    Precip map is lit up. Especially for D15. Rest up now, gonna be busy soon.
  11. WxUSAF
    I think it was early January 2017? We had this amazing look for a huge overrunning event that was very consistent from like D7-13. But it got within D7 and the arctic air won and we got a very cold, but mostly dry, week in January. Think we got a small clipper to drop a dusting-2".
  12. WxUSAF
    No, that's the control run. It's essentially the Euro op run out to Day 45.
  13. WxUSAF
    Boy howdy, GEFS is purty at the end. Woof woof aleet aleet
  14. WxUSAF
    GEFS has a better track for the 12-13th, looks like it’s to the south on the mean but with a lot of scatter. But dat airmass tho…
  15. WxUSAF
    The first time there’s a single run-to-run EPS change to slightly warmer temps after Feb 15 BAMwx will hit the torch emoji so damn fast…
  16. WxUSAF
    Today is a great day to sign Jordan Montgomery
  17. WxUSAF
    ^I think there’s no reasonable doubt that this longwave pattern is coming. Question now becomes tracking individual shortwaves. Period around the 12th still looks too warm to me. EPS is very northern stream dominated for that period. GEFS has a southern low pass more or less over us on the means, but airmass is pretty bad leading in.
  18. WxUSAF
    Think it’s a pretty reasonable trade. Think Hall has big potential as a closer closer type reliever, but Burnes is a good move for the O’s and probably now at least some chance he could sign a new contract with the team given new ownership.
  19. WxUSAF
    O’s trading for Corbin burnes. Joey Ortiz and DL Hall are reportedly the trade pieces.
  20. WxUSAF
  21. WxUSAF
    In Harford county, March 93 was like 12” of snow with a solid 1-2” of sleet crust on top. Could almost walk on top of it without breaking through. I remember frigid cold and winds the second afternoon.
  22. WxUSAF
    Takeaway the warm days and January was really cold
  23. WxUSAF
    This is more what the euro does actually. Drags more cold air behind it.
  24. WxUSAF
    My wag is that we want that northern low to be strong so it can drag in some cold air behind it and set the thermal boundary to our south. We probably also want some better spacing between the northern low and the southern low behind it.
  25. WxUSAF
    27.5 for the low. First time in the 20s in a minute.
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