WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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HM has spoken
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If a partial phase and a turn up the coast is the fail scenario, them I'm definitely onboard. Would love to be able to take a complete whiff on the phase off the table as a fail option.
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Area wide warning level event as a "floor" is still quite nice
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Don't know yet snow-wise, but GGEM sort of looks like 6z GFS. Can't quite phase, but we still get snow. Gets going later and hits NYC-BOS.
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Well...GGEM is a pretty big step back from 0z. Much less phasing early. Still getting going, so might do a late save however.
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A big dark deep cave
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Gimme the Big Dog Wed-Thurs and I'll be ready for gusty shower season
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Snowing in Columbia. 37F
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I’m 100% sure (ok, 99%) that they will be an east coast storm this week. 80-90% sure it’s going to snow a lot somewhere between RDU/ORF and BOS. 75% sure of shovelable snow in LWX WFO area. 99% chance of Ji being disappointed
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We'll pass the 100 hour mark with the 0z runs tonight. Storm starts forming in 60-ish hours. We're getting pretty close. There's going to be a storm nearby. Miss risk seems mostly associated with something that hits Norfolk area then slides OTS.
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6z gfs was a major step toward a euro-like solution. Much closer to a phase than any earlier runs.
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Dendrite bomb CCB ongoing with 12-20”+ on the ground. Terrible run
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Actually more spacing between the trop PV and the southern shortwave on 18z vs 12z. So the storm is entirely southern forced. That actually makes it a bit stronger than 12z (no interference from the northern stream), but WAY far from a phase like the Euro/GGEM/Ukie.
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Waking up to a 20F CCB death band
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Hang it in the fucking Louvre
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Incredible event on my son’s 5th birthday. Kicked off an epic next 5 weeks.
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Love how cold it would be before and during this event. Upper 10s/low 20s on euro. Even during daytime. That’s pretty unusual for late season snow events obviously.
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Forecasting by snow maps isn’t the ideal method of course, but there’s an important difference here. Last week’s ensemble maps favored Tuesday, but had a lot of time spread with some snow from yesterday and some from tomorrow. So the big totals were like 96-120 hour totals. 24 hour totals were always more in the 5-6” range. This storm’s ensemble snow maps aren’t “contaminated” by that spread in storms and timing. And I know you’re 50% trolling, but I love you anyway.
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it did not. Glancing blow I think.
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Northern stream shortwave/trop PV is just totally sheared out this run. Very different than other guidance and its own previous runs.
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It’s a banger
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Northern stream typically has more uncertainty/variability at short to medium lead times. That could be good or bad in this context.
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Yup was just thinking that. We’re only ~5 days out from this developing.
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So every global gives us something? Seems like a solid 12z suite. Hopefully eps is encouraging.
