WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Seems like with the 18z runs we finally have some consensus, it’s just consensus on dusting-1” for the majority of us instead of the 1-3” we were hoping for. That shortwave is trending stronger so maybe we can juice this up some more. Or rely on 20:1 ratios??
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18z rgem was also north. It more clearly is loosening the confluence vs recent runs. Can we sustain some positive trends for more than 1 cycle now?
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And much juicier down south. @Bob Chillgonna need to put the plow on his tractor.
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Click through the previous 5-6 GFS runs and you can see our shortwave gets much sharper and better defined. Confluence is bouncing around more, which isn’t surprising from a more poorly sampled region.
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18z icon an ass hair north of 12z. Basically dusting for most of the area. 1” down by EZF. 2-3” for RIC.
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18z NBM is north relative to a lot of what we’re looking at it seems
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Don’t know why, but I’m feeling really invested in this one lol. We don’t get many chances for cold powder daytime snows, let alone in December. I want something Friday!
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A freezing or sub freezing high temp for DCA would be incredibly impressive. That’s like a -20F departure or more.
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Well you’re looking at snow depth 2 days later?
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Lock that max total stripe in right there!!
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Another potential warm up cancelled?
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First time in months that the euro ejects a southern stream wave faster than other guidance. Same pieces are there, just much more separated than on the gfs.
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AI keeps temps in the 20s all day Friday.
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Euro AI is a slight bump north for Friday. Dusting-2” for metro area. 3” for @Bob Chill, 2-3” for RIC.
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GGEM closer to something early next week as well.
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If the snow stopped at the Potomac like 12z gfs shows, I’d get pretty ragey…
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Think I had a few pingers when it got started around 430, based on the sound on my windows? 34 and rain now.
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Howard 2hr cold rain delay. And the kids rejoiced!
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Baltimore and Carroll also 2hr delay
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The @mattie gbeacon has been lit!
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Impressive radiational cooling for all of the area tonight. Not sure it will sensibly change the result, but it can’t hurt and sure as hell is better than sitting at 42 and hoping to wet bulb to 33-34.
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34/23 but nearby PWS already 31. Wish it probably made more difference! Probably will be some random 5F temp rise in the middle of the night.
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Which probably means all the dominoes are going to fall. In their defense, start time is tricky and 2 hour delays are “free”
