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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Great write up in the varsity thread @MillvilleWx! I think the cold temps during and after the storm are going to low key be really surprising and impactful. Just zero melting.
  2. WxUSAF
    So many fewer posts than the last couple days. Refreshed after gfs and only like 2 new pages of comments. Everyone’s already exhausted lol
  3. WxUSAF
    Fwiw at 60hrs, snow/sleet line along KY/TN border looks fairly similar between 3k NAM, FV3, and RGEM.
  4. WxUSAF
    At the end of the 3k NAM run, it has the snow/sleet line notably south of 12k NAM in Kentucky. Maybe 50mi? fwiw NAM thermals are definitely worth watching, but like starting with tomorrows 12z or 18z?
  5. WxUSAF
    That seems reasonable. Doesn’t CHO usually CAD better than the metro area?
  6. WxUSAF
    Maybe only slushy accumulations on grass car tops? @paulythegun
  7. WxUSAF
    Freezing rain can definitely happen at those temps, but you need a crazy strong and shallow inversion aloft (I.e., very warm air just above the surface). We’ll see on Saturday what soundings look like. I think our area will mostly mix wirh sleet and maybe go to freezing drizzle at the end (which often happens as storms wind down and dry air starts moving in aloft).
  8. WxUSAF
    The northern shortwave/s aren’t going to suddenly get sampled better at any particular model cycle. It won’t be a big increase in high quality data like the recon of the Baja low. It will just sort of be progressively moving into a more data-dense region.
  9. WxUSAF
    I mean, I get being conservative still 2.5 days out. But like…I almost can’t fathom a scenario where even DC gets less than like 4”?
  10. WxUSAF
    Just based off Will’s maps, looks like more snow before a flip than 0z, but more precip total after a flip? I again will sell on ZR vs sleet…
  11. WxUSAF
    I’m mostly curious what info the normies are getting. Family friend that visited last night was lamenting the rapid Apple weather app snow total changes…
  12. WxUSAF
    WBAL slightly increasing? Low end now 6”, same likely range, high end now “15+”
  13. WxUSAF
    I’ll wait until Saturday morning or so and NAM 3k is in range, but I’m really skeptical of ZR north of like EZF (and maybe even south of that). Really would think snow to sleet to storm over.
  14. WxUSAF
    To use CWG’s terms, there’s definitely a boom scenario with high ratios and stronger WAA thump than modeled. Bust scenario is faster sleet mixing. Combine both options and I’m back to 8-14”.
  15. WxUSAF
    Needed a break by about 7pm yesterday. Think I was mostly scrolling this forum for like 13-14 hours Thankfully things didn’t go to shit overnight. 8-14” still looks like a solid range for most of us in the metro area at this stage.
  16. WxUSAF
    More separation on 18z vs 12 euro. Icon gets tossed. Blend the whole euro suite until we get within like 36hrs and get 3k NAM profiles.
  17. WxUSAF
    Looks pretty similar to 12z I think. I’d guess that again most of the precip is over when mix starts. As @psuhoffmanwas saying earlier, they’re linked. Heavier precip helps keep the column cold.
  18. WxUSAF
    Also seems reasonable for now
  19. WxUSAF
    Note Tomer’s EPS predominant precip plots are all snow for the metro areas.
  20. WxUSAF
  21. WxUSAF
    @mappy Tom T just said “low end” 5”, “high end” 15”, “most likely” 8-12”. Seems solid to me.
  22. WxUSAF
    So far it seems all the divergence in 18z model outcomes is based on the northern stream shortwave, not the Baja low. Maybe the recon has enough fuel to make it to northern Canada??
  23. WxUSAF
    GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride.
  24. WxUSAF
    RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix.
  25. WxUSAF
    And that’s what basically every other run has. Icon has a cleaner, single northern shortwave that perfectly phases. It’s quite beautiful actually if you ignore how it Fs us over lol.
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