I think all 3 globals got closer to “something” with the 12z runs. They essentially split the follow up wave into 2 parts so the second barely has a little precip around as the cold air arrives. It’s very much on the razor edge and I wouldn’t believe it until short range if it played out this way. If some how that second part can separate more and therefore have the cold air more in place, we’d have a more confident chance.