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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. It occludes and stacks in place. You can get snow all the way to the low location when that happens. It’s rare obviously. But what isn’t rare about a 3’ snow bomb?
  2. Assuming this goes to IVT only, it’s possible someone can pull 6”ish out of this. But a small area. GGEM has a bullseye of that magnitude and looks like Ukie also.
  3. Yeah that 0z Monday sounding would be like near whiteout with high ratio parachutes. Crazy stuff.
  4. RGEM is juicy. 1”+ stripe centered on I66/Rt50 corridor.
  5. FWIW (nothing), I think the NAM would have given us snow from the IVT after 84 hours.
  6. By the stats it’s better than the icon, but worse than the GGEM and its AI version.
  7. March is easy #1 worst weather month of the year outside of 1993 and 2017 and 2014
  8. “Fun” that we jumped into crappy March weather 2 weeks early
  9. Top analogs for next winter going to be 02-03, 09-10, 82-83, and something from the 1890s.
  10. Apparently there was some storm recon plane data fed into the 18z cycle. More coming for 0z.
  11. Good happy hour. I’m not going to kick a 2-4” event out of bed if that’s what it ends up being.
  12. Yup. Honestly I’d probably want to be between Baltimore and like Trenton NJ if I was betting…
  13. One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol
  14. 22.8” mean and 17” median in my 17 years in Columbia. Last 10 years have mean of 13.5” and median of 14.5”. All assuming no additional snow this year.
  15. Driving different way to work on route 1 in beltsville and there are still giant snow piles in the traffic lanes! Wtf!?
  16. There’s your IVT Yup, they tend to move north and east with shorter leads.
  17. Seems the most common theme on guidance for Sunday is an inverted trough somewhere through the region as a focus for precip (snow or rain). Those are notoriously tricky to locate well in advance but can give some lucky people a nice event if the stars align. Even the AI models have this IVT to some degree.
  18. What are we looking for on the weeklies in late Feb?
  19. Daytime Miller B in late Feb with a trash heap antecedent airmass? ALL IN
  20. Did people think we’d escape a Nina winter without a Delmarva jackpot?
  21. Did a much too early check of GFS soundings and it’s only a very shallow area of above freezing temps. Like 975-980mb and below. Still don’t really want 34-35F at 2pm in late February though…
  22. It’s that time of year where you usually want to bet on the wedge winning in your temp and cloud forecasts…
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