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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Low of 37 IMBY. A handful of mesonet stations had their first freeze.
  2. WxUSAF
    @wxmeddler or @Eskimo Joe, DM @dendrite to answer a question or 2
  3. WxUSAF
    I lit the batsignal
  4. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    NOAA seasonal forecasters are almost always ENSO copy-pasted
  5. WxUSAF
    First 30s of the season IMBY
  6. WxUSAF
    ^busy season coming up for you
  7. WxUSAF
    Maybe chill on this until we get fantasy GFS snow
  8. WxUSAF
    Hopefully enough for widespread first freeze at least.
  9. WxUSAF
    Probably something like 0.3" for a storm total. ~0.55" for October. Excited for another 0.2" this weekend!
  10. WxUSAF
    About 0.25” for a 3 day total so far
  11. WxUSAF
    Can’t get rates above “moderate drizzle”
  12. WxUSAF
    It’s raining!
  13. WxUSAF
    Now do Harbaugh!
  14. WxUSAF
    0.05” overnight. 0.06” storm total lol
  15. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Oh my mistake. That definitely changes the sensible outcomes.
  16. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    The way that plot is made, doesn’t Dec-Jan 2001 mean Dec 2001-Jan 2002??
  17. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    ^a lot of those +QBO/Ninos are great winters for us. Maybe it’s the difference between the SE and our area. The longwave pattern looks good in the -QBO map (with some small quibbles), but it doesn’t seem to work out for our area too well.
  18. WxUSAF
    .01”! Forecast verified!
  19. WxUSAF
    Sports is sadness
  20. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    This looks really good, but 2 of these recent or fairly recent Nina analogs were really shitty winters. And Dec 2006-Jan 2007 was awful, although Feb 2007 was cold and fairly snowy.
  21. WxUSAF
    #TeamNAMRideOrDie
  22. WxUSAF
    This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white.
  23. WxUSAF
    Would still be a nice soaking rain for most. It’s the best of the options at this point outside the NAM.
  24. WxUSAF
    Euro is basically some light rain tomorrow afternoon and evening and that’s the whole deal
  25. WxUSAF
    Well 12z meso runs are starting off positively FWIW (very little)
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