Jump to content

WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    25,308

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    It’s a D7 event. We’ve got time to make at least 2 more full revolutions.
  2. WxUSAF
    Should be lots of eagles!
  3. WxUSAF
    Lot of action in the long range thread given we cancelled winter yesterday morning.
  4. WxUSAF
    Seems like an encouraging 12z suite on balance.
  5. WxUSAF
    Allar looks like Joe Montana against the Delawares and Northwesterns and is a total deer in the headlights against the teams that PSU considers peers.
  6. WxUSAF
    As a penn state fan, it’s just remarkable how bad Franklin and Allar are in big games.
  7. WxUSAF
    I never thought this period between today and the 7-10th would be frigid. But I have to say I’m disappointed that it’s not even seasonable. The storm on the 4th and 7th “should” at least be frozen majority for the N/W burbs.
  8. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman is right that we’ve seen this -WPO/-NAO combo a bunch in recent years and it has mostly burned us big time. Difference this year is that Niño forcing and the response to the strat vortex weakening *should* move that PAC ridge east into AK and the west coast and it can quickly evolve into a woofwoof KU type pattern. In recent years, Niña forcing reinforces the WPO and hence the western trough and so we only got transient periods when the ridge moved east.
  9. WxUSAF
    Working outside in short sleeves as one does on…December 28?
  10. WxUSAF
    Positive vibes from (checks notes) Eric Webb?
  11. WxUSAF
    To my eye, surface and H5 look good on the GEFS for the 4-5th and 6-8th. Snow mean just looks like trash though if you care about such things. Don’t fully understand the disconnect.
  12. WxUSAF
    SSWs happen in about 60% of seasons in the northern hemisphere. How and if they influence the troposphere is much more variable. The current background forcing: Nino, -PDO, east QBO, and solar forcing is about primo for a SSW this winter. But those factors also already support northern blocking! And that northern blocking forces the SSW, which reinforces that block! So there’s some chicken and the egg arguments here.
  13. WxUSAF
    EPS still with a strong signal on the 7th. A little offshore vs our preference, but a good look for a D11-12 event.
  14. WxUSAF
    Lowes was done with Christmas last week! But I went to Walmart yesterday morning and got a bunch of lights for 50% off.
  15. WxUSAF
    Good thread from Tomer tonight
  16. WxUSAF
    See…shamed it into performance!
  17. WxUSAF
    GFS working overtime to avoid giving us digital blue after the Christmas miracle fantasy HECS.
  18. WxUSAF
    No idea
  19. WxUSAF
    The point is that the -PNA is already on its way out as a ridge builds in and the +EPO heads toward an Aleutian low.
  20. WxUSAF
    It’s an interesting argument on Twitter and I’m not sure how if this is really a disagreement or just confusion. But it seems 12z eps was a pretty huge outlier from a long trend. So either way I’d wait for some confirmation before jumping off a cliff.
  21. WxUSAF
    That plus a SSW will favor a trough east of the Rockies at some time lag after it happens. So if it happens around the 7th, the SSW would start helping that pattern around the 15-20th.
  22. WxUSAF
    Solid ensemble agreement for the period around the 6/7th. Still a ways to go. I also like seeing signs that any “mild/relax” period will be pretty short lived. Can already see off/on hints of the trough undercutting the NAO and also reestablishing an aleutian low.
  23. WxUSAF
    Lol oh man, that’s like 3 nut punches in a row on the gfs
  24. WxUSAF
    Yeah, freezing level is like 950mb in that deform band. It’s low, but also not right at the surface. So I think it would be pouring slush bombs at 34 if it happened like that. But it “should” be a 30-32F pasting.
  25. WxUSAF
    I think I agree that there would be at least some snow in that deform band on the back with that look. But the torched boundary layer at that point is pretty alarming and discouraging.
×
×
  • Create New...