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WxUSAF

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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Not sure what all your perspectives may be, but one of my takeaways for this entire winter has been that the northern stream has been way more involved than I expected. With a strong Nino I was figuring we’d have some number of big honking southern lows and the only question would be how cold it was and where. But for the most part the southern lows have gotten bullied around and that looks to continue the next 7-14 days with our previously classic Nino pattern.
  2. WxUSAF
    I think there’s been potential for phasing the entire time with this, but outside of a few random op runs, there hasn’t been much support for it. Mostly guidance has suggested that in some way the northern stream squashes the southern wave. For now seems our best chance for snow is with the northern shortwave alone. Honestly it’s not much different than the second storm of our January week of winter. Can we get another short range favorable trend??
  3. WxUSAF
    I said this a couple weeks ago I think, but in my experience you can accumulate with temps 33-34 certainly. 35 is possible but really needs to be thumping. 36 and higher is just white rain. Of course rates and temps are linked and higher rates will cool the surface down some.
  4. WxUSAF
    lol can ring those snowflakes out like a sponge
  5. WxUSAF
    Euro is south of us for Saturday. A multi-model blend is probably a light hit for the metro area and points northward. eta…euro is dusting-2” for most of VA verbatim.
  6. WxUSAF
    Lol yes. I’m just going to hug the euro 10:1 map for MBY and go “lalala can’t can’t hear you” when somebody points out my temp is like 40F when it’s snowing
  7. WxUSAF
    I’ve seen a few things suggested: stronger lakes shortwave weaker and more positively tilted southern shortwave
  8. WxUSAF
    Think we’re in the game to measure something at least…
  9. WxUSAF
    Yeah I think this is about if/where that narrow frontogen band develops tomorrow morning. Just a little more south trend and extra tuck can get it over me…
  10. WxUSAF
    Even the very stupid hrrrr snow depth map has Mt PSU and Mt Parkton in the 6” range lol
  11. WxUSAF
    9ers gonna end up losing 12-10 because they can’t do shit on offense
  12. WxUSAF
    Big jump south on 3k NAM too. Good for high elevations in northern MD verbatim.
  13. WxUSAF
    We’re gonna Jebwalk to Valhalla
  14. WxUSAF
    Only 1 out of 51 with nothing
  15. WxUSAF
    Wtf crazy uncle Ukie
  16. WxUSAF
    Trip to Austin booked and paid
  17. WxUSAF
    Seeing an MJO chart is starting to make my eye twitch
  18. WxUSAF
    @yoda is 900 years old and we’re losing him
  19. WxUSAF
    5” DCA, 7” BWI, 8” IAD all with mixing. 16” Mt PSU. Final call
  20. WxUSAF
    If this thing happens, that’s certainly the longest lead I’ve ever seen verify for a storm.
  21. WxUSAF
    ^thats an amazing signal given the lead time
  22. WxUSAF
    ^looks like even an indication of northern stream energy phasing in?
  23. WxUSAF
    More and more it seems to me that the MJO is just one forcing factor among many others. So many Mets have been taking it as some purely prescriptive forecaster.
  24. WxUSAF
    We’ve already been tracking this period for 2+ weeks and have 2 weeks to go. People are antsy and irritable. I know I’m looking forward to not hearing “MJO” for 8 more months starting March 15th.
  25. WxUSAF
    Yeah it’s something. At least euro still shows a favorable pattern at D10. New gfs SOP is that everything after D10 is to revert to April basically.
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