WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I don’t have @psuhoffmans photographic memory for light to moderate events lol. But I think it’s been awhile…
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I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion.
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Still, the difference is just the near pick 6.
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Pretty thrilled about 24 first half points. But the defense…woof.
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Well shit
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That was a good stop. Hopefully get some momentum going now.
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Defense getting fucking torched worse than our winters lately
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And it gives us a white Christmas
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10/10 sunset aleet
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Someone post euro weekly control
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From @donsutherland1
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The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing
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Storm water ponds and parts of the creeks in my neighborhood frozen over. That’s certainly early.
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Not sure it’s either. I think it’s just subseasonal forcing like the MJO combining with factors like the warm water in the west Pacific producing this sort of look.
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Not speaking about this specifically, but it’s crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is in 10-14 days according to the ensembles.
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Nope. Bottomed out at 22 and rose after midnight.
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23 already. Teens finally tonight?
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Definitely a more likely outcome
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Happy hour looks a baby step closer again. Trailing wave is stronger and trough is more negatively tilted. Problem is the boundary layer. Temps still in U30s/N40 when there’s still some precip. Freezing level around 950mb.
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I think all 3 globals got closer to “something” with the 12z runs. They essentially split the follow up wave into 2 parts so the second barely has a little precip around as the cold air arrives. It’s very much on the razor edge and I wouldn’t believe it until short range if it played out this way. If some how that second part can separate more and therefore have the cold air more in place, we’d have a more confident chance.
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Yeah BAMwx going pretty hard on the 13-14 analog on Twitter this morning.
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Flurries in Ellicott city per Mrs. WxUSAF
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Could be @psuhoffmans 3rd or 4th accumulating event? According to my calculations, that many accumulating events by December 6th means we get a HECS in January.
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Was wondering if those radar echoes were producing. Nothing here though.
