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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Saw some eps maps in the other subforums and it looks decent? Maybe a tick better than 6z? Seems like that really high end totals are unlikely due to faster motion. But advisory to warning level for many very much on the table.
  2. WxUSAF
    Ok makes sense. Hopefully we can wobble back or find another path to a mostly snow outcome. Still have time.
  3. WxUSAF
    Vs 0z or 6z? I did a quick comparison vs 0z using the maps on pivotal. Seems like it’s the general “all features are a bit weaker and hence warmer”, but not a total ratter.
  4. WxUSAF
    I mentioned this earlier, but I wonder if there’s another path where this thing gets a little weaker with time and hence a farther south track. That could also keep our column colder. Right now may be a “worst of both worlds” scenario. Dunno, just speculating.
  5. WxUSAF
    All things being equal, the surface low track is MORE canonical for DC-Baltimore snowstorms than 0z. Low goes offshore near VA/NC border and then east of OCMD. But it’s become abundantly clear with the 12z suite that we want a stronger storm with more northern stream energy to keep the cold air in place.
  6. WxUSAF
    That’s good in this case! We don’t want the PV squashing everything to Florida. That weak SE ridge keeps the baroclinic zone nearby. I kinda like that look a lot…
  7. WxUSAF
    Good news is that this could easily bounce back the other way. If you look at H5, the northern stream has been shifting quite a bit. This isn’t the final solution. But it highlights the sensitivities.
  8. WxUSAF
    Devil is in the details of how the shortwaves interact and phase. Weaker northern stream energy seems to hurt as compared to some snowier solutions.
  9. WxUSAF
    This trend seems good to me
  10. WxUSAF
    Wasn’t 6z GEFS and 0z euro some of the best runs we’ve seen? Lol. Let’s not get nuts here.
  11. WxUSAF
    Yeah, GEFS has caved to the EPS/GEPS look as @psuhoffman predicted.
  12. WxUSAF
    Thanks chief. I’m driving to your yard and stealing all your snow on Sunday morning.
  13. WxUSAF
    Yeah I’ve noticed that the storm for tomorrow and Thursday has trended south and weaker. There’s probably a balance here if the same thing happens with the weekend storm. South is good for us generally, but weaker is maybe a double edged sword. Weak and north is bad because it doesn’t wrap in colder air, but maybe weaker and south balances that back out? Just speculation. Nobody should be spiking footballs or bailing on 1 run 100+ hours out.
  14. WxUSAF
    Even if this storm “fails” from a snow perspective in the cities, this is just a remarkable modeling success from literally 13-15 days lead time. We picked up this time period as soon as it was in ensemble range.
  15. WxUSAF
    P.s. banter-type posts will get hidden with more regularity here
  16. WxUSAF
    Storm thread been given. God help us all.
  17. WxUSAF
    I’ll fall on the sword when guidance unanimously goes to Cleveland at 12z.
  18. WxUSAF
    Haven’t been to Barcelona, but I love Spain. It’s wrongly way too low on American’s European travel destinations.
  19. WxUSAF
    I saw the euro before this and was kinda confused
  20. WxUSAF
    Don’t know if we go there yet, but more zero value added posts will go away?
  21. WxUSAF
    Happy happy hour!
  22. WxUSAF
    I think you’re on the right track @psuhoffman. Our big dogs often don’t have a monster PNA ridge, the biggest anomalies are the NAO/AO ridging usually. So if that shortwave you’ve indicated rolls east with the ridge behind it…it would look like a lot of our KU patterns.
  23. WxUSAF
    What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact.
  24. WxUSAF
    Some OH valley low still in this run vs almost 100% coastal low at 0z. Hence warmer for coastal plain areas.
  25. WxUSAF
    41 and some sprinkles in Columbia
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