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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    CAD and WAA precip are the 2 things that will overperform for us. This isn’t a CAD situation but we can hope that we get a good thump for a few hours tomorrow. That’s the most reasonable “boom” scenario for the metro corridor (and maybe even N/W areas). A few hours of light precip won’t cut it. Fingers crossed!
  2. WxUSAF
    Sorry, I’ve moved onto tracking front end snow from the next rainstorm
  3. WxUSAF
    High of 39 and starting to tick down. Dew is 18.
  4. WxUSAF
    What triggers me most? -PNA or being in @Ellinwood’s dreaded “mixing” zone.
  5. WxUSAF
    Dropped to 19.2! First teens this winter.
  6. WxUSAF
    Low of 20.7 so far
  7. WxUSAF
    Amazing thread from Tomer tonight. You’ll want to read to the end.
  8. WxUSAF
    Snow depth is good to check against in marginal situations like this but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen actually accumulations that match snow depth forecasts. Even the December post-deluge changeover beat the snow depths by like a factor of 2.
  9. WxUSAF
    I love how on TT, the 3k NAM keeps accumulating snow even after the flip to rain.
  10. WxUSAF
    Next tuesdays cutter sets the thermal boundary for any follow up waves. GGEM makes that boundary much more favorable and has been consistently more friendly than the gfs. But gfs isn’t too far off… Late next week is still a time to watch closely.
  11. WxUSAF
    Under my new “I’ll take anything measurable” criteria for storm success, IMBY, I’ll take the gfs in a hot second. Far N/W folks probably like it a lot less though as it trims precip totals for the mountains.
  12. WxUSAF
    I’m taking the TT 3k NAM 10:1 snowmap as my final call, no takebacks, all in. In reality, it does show about 4 hours of pretty heavy snow from 16-20z IMBY. If that did happen…
  13. WxUSAF
    Even Webb is honking for the MLK day week this morning
  14. WxUSAF
    Flurries in Columbia per Mrs WxUSAF. Long range pattern verified!!
  15. WxUSAF
    Could go down like that. Most strong Ninos give us a 3-5 week heater and comes down to how many times we can capitalize.
  16. WxUSAF
    To be fair, it was pretty obvious by this time last year that we were almost certainly cooked. We weren’t even teased with D10-15 longwave patterns.
  17. WxUSAF
    Ha, I was literally coming to say that, for illustrative purposes, this is a potential big dog look. PV trapped under the -NAO with a strong southern stream wave forced to move W-E across the conus with arctic air locked in.
  18. WxUSAF
    Bummer. Good luck far N/W folks! This doesn’t look like the one that’s going to break the record long streak without 1” of snow for any of DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC. Maybe IAD still has a chance?
  19. WxUSAF
    I guess. I think by 0z or 12z tomorrow the synoptic details are down to noise level changes and it just comes down to a few degrees in the 800mb to surface column. 18z is very slightly colder than 12z at 0z Sunday. Sharper temp gradient too. Still thumpy to start in the 18-21z period Saturday.
  20. WxUSAF
    Could about walk from places with <1” to 8”. Razor thin gradient.
  21. WxUSAF
    RGEM has that N-S oriented trough of warm air aloft like 12z euro.
  22. WxUSAF
    Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch.
  23. WxUSAF
    Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke.
  24. WxUSAF
    That inverted trough (trowal maybe?) is sort of the killer. Not sure how real that feature is. I actually though euro looked decent/good before it got to us.
  25. WxUSAF
    In happier news, GEFS has The Look starting MLK weekend. PV trapped under a mega -NAO/AO with some ridging developing out west.
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