WxUSAF

The FFS please God give us snow trend

What you all said. Pretty big step toward a 12z euro-like solution, but can’t put it together. Euro has more southern stream energy. GFS doesn’t have that and splits the northern stream energy into pieces.

Agreed. This euro run makes me think there’s a path to get two good events as well.

I see blue! But not as much blue as there could be maybe with that look.

Hmmm…liking the euro look at 192 as we approach the 20th time period.

It’s pretty close to a big dog solution. Can’t quite phase and capture the surface low. Eta…but a cold warning level event over daytime? I’d sign up for this solution right freaking now

But a bit more interested in the 20th…

12z GEFS seems…underwhelmed…for Tuesday.

WTOP this morning: ”Temperature in Washington currently 45 degrees. Wind chill of 38!!!”

Right now just to get 1” we need fantastic luck, straight arctic air, the entire continent covered in feet of snow, a -9SD NAO/AO combo, joined -EPO/+PNA ridge from Costa Rica to Siberia…

DT’s thoughts. In a shocking and uncharacteristic twist, he favors the euro over the gfs.

Why do my kids have a 2hr delay??

I don’t want to go too far down this rabbit hole, but I think our current 7 year winter suckage is a combo of background warming, natural cycles that are unfavorable, and bad luck. We’ve had troughs favoring the west in winter for years now, but up until winter 16-17 it was the opposite with a seemingly permanent ridge out west. Remember the “ridiculously resilient ridge” out west? Sucked for them but we loved it. That cycle flipped HARD. I think that switch will flip again at some point to favor a trough in the east in winter, but background warming will probably mean it’s not as productive as it would have been in the previous cycle.

Over 2” at my neighbor’s PWS which runs low in windy conditions. Some others nearby are almost 3”.

Lot of standing water in the road as I drove home. Also lots in farm fields.

That’s the best GEFS look I’ve seen yet. Longitudinally extended trough from 50/50 west to north of the Great Lakes with a strong -NAO is classic.

Meanwhile the GGEM has a modest hit. Best solution it’s had yet I think.

It’s closer at H5 to 6z vs 0z. Just doesn’t dig as much.

I think we consider cutters well-modeled because we don’t usually give 2 shits if the track goes over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, or Minneapolis. It’s all (usually) the same outcome for us. The changes to the Chicago snow forecast I think shows that they are subject to the same wiggles that mean life and death to our snow totals.

I got 3 evaluations for repairs to my gutters over the holidays. Would have been nice if 2 of the 3 could actually send price estimates so I could have had the repairs done before our 5th heavy rain event in the last month…

I think Anne Arundel did the early dismissal first and I get it for them with the coastal flood issues. The other MD counties though are mostly follow the leader.

I guess if we can’t get a snow day, we’ll become California and close for heavy rain and wind.

JB winter forecast verified!!

It’s not the same at all. Cuts up the spine of the Apps