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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    4 days seems to be our witching hour this year.
  2. WxUSAF
    2-3” in the HoCo bullseye. All in.
  3. WxUSAF
    6z RGEM is 2-4” for the metro area. Cutoff to the south near Fredericksburg.
  4. WxUSAF
    But then it all separates and turns into a shit sandwich. Some light snow verbatim, but looked better than 12z for awhile.
  5. WxUSAF
    Meso'd
  6. WxUSAF
    Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday.
  7. WxUSAF
    Lol, the euro just made a huge jump at 12z. I think we might be meeting in the middle, which was often the most plausible outcome.
  8. WxUSAF
    Eh...ok, I provisionally like it a little less. More energy in the front running s/w vs the back of the trough.
  9. WxUSAF
    Randy may be ahead of me, but s/w looks stronger than 12z at 54hrs?
  10. WxUSAF
    Not sure it means anything, but the mesos seem to like having that narrow band of light overrunning snow creep into the area Monday. Globals don't have that as much.
  11. WxUSAF
    Lol dude uses the CFS for forecasting
  12. WxUSAF
    It’s sort of a weak overrunning event that turns into a Miller B type evolution with the big northern stream s/w rotating in. 1-4” across our subforum verbatim. I don’t hate it, that’s for sure. Room for more though.
  13. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman…yeah, @MN Transplant picked up on that earlier. Euro is stronger than other guidance with that lead s/w that moves through the Midwest. BUT…it was notably weaker with it (and more energy left behind) at 12z vs 0z. That’s more of an issue than the kicker. One more step of equal magnitude and euro probably looks like todays gfs.
  14. WxUSAF
    Kicker is also weaker yet again. Lots of positive steps here with 12z euro.
  15. WxUSAF
    I’m behind Randy, but at 78hrs, the TPV is much less suppressive and more energy is concentrated west in the trough. Less energy in the front running s/w.
  16. WxUSAF
    I’m only out to 66 on pivotal and can only compare to 0z. But I like it more than 0z for sure.
  17. WxUSAF
    Maybe I’ll start up my snowblower at home today. Extra heat and pollution into the air here will help increase heights ahead of the storm and push it back toward us.
  18. WxUSAF
    Oh ha, you’re right. That’s the last update on TT lol
  19. WxUSAF
    It’s actually pretty gorgeous
  20. WxUSAF
    Anyone have 13z NBM?
  21. WxUSAF
    Yes
  22. WxUSAF
    H/T to @mitchnick: Ukie is amped. 995mb over ACY.
  23. WxUSAF
    Reminder GEFS had almost nothing until 18z yesterday. And now we’re at D4 or less so I’d expect it will follow the op largely.
  24. WxUSAF
    Feb 2015 did. But otherwise I think the coldest days the last 7 years have been of the frozen mud variety.
  25. WxUSAF
    If we can get snowcover, I’d say widespread single digit lows are pretty likely.
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