WxUSAF

WWA issued for tomorrow for metro areas and much of MD

Low of 16

Maybe a dusting for metro areas Thursday am as the ULL swings through?

Ready for spring but March is #TheWorst

Thankfully roads have been brined per Saturday’s 0z euro

Snow still starting around 21-0z tomorrow?!? So excited!!

I think we knew that the shortwave interaction was touchy, but didn’t foresee a situation where it would be so suppressive.

That’s what I thought this week would be! Cap off winter with a cold MECS! Or a few wind blown flurries…

Maybe if we close this thread and open a new one before 0z we can bring this back?

Ready for 70F. I’m not normally one to ever wish for winter to end, but I’m ready for some sunshine and outdoor activities.

We have a thread now for this epic event

Yeah I totally get what you’re saying. Maybe we will recover the long lost late NW trend this time.

At the rate we’re going, seems quite possible.

Ratios would be legit better than usual if it played out that way.

Something like this makes more sense if you mostly have a storm that’s being forced by the southern wave and confluence is preventing it from pushing too far north. Frankly looks more like our other events this year. Storm develops in the plains and mostly tracks east without gaining a ton of latitude.

6-7” of champagne powder. Think ratios were legit 15:1+

To respond to @psuhoffmans posts from yesterday, the difference between H5 and surface is pretty weird here. Heaviest snow is north of H5 shortwave track usually. Using 0z euro as an example, even the southern stream wave tracks roughly from RDU to ORF. That should be pretty good for us! Northern stream goes well to our north! Should be good for…Albany? Ultimately, I think our problem mostly is the northern stream isn’t diving south farther west as it did with some of the MECS-HECS runs. So we’re getting either a partial phase or it’s even acting as a kicker to the southern wave (ggem).

Hello darkness my old friend

2 nights ago, most guidance showing 1-2’ MECS: 4.5 new pages in the LR thread Last night: mostly a total disaster: 25 new pages in the LR thread

Seasonal trend won’t stop

Going back to 12z gfs, but CIPS analogs like northern areas more. From Cody Snell on Twitter.

From what I see at 96h, northern energy looks better than 12z? More consolidated and moving east. Southern wave looks weaker.

EPS also tending to shear out the trop PV last few runs. That would limit the HECS-like chances.

Sleet in Columbia but temps are summer-like

Each suite we’re getting 1-2 globals with the 20”+ HECS, 2-3 with a 8-15” range, and one with more of a 4-8” deal. They’re just taking turns which is which. Although euro hasn’t been on that lower end for awhile.