Not true! I vividly remember driving to work during the November storm in 2018. I think forecast low for dc was like right at freezing. When the weather report on the radio said it was 28 or 29 at DCA I nearly drove off the road.
So far this month, it’s the torch that’s been getting cankicked. Guidance has repeatedly been adjusting colder at shorter lead times for the eastern conus with more -EPO and less of that rollover ridge.
The setup for the weak system this weekend seems to look good, but that powerhouse 1017mb low in the Midwest just bullies the 1047mb high over New England out of the way
As Tomer’s been tweeting, “torch” potential really isn’t there. Going to be some back and forth with temps, but not as shut/lower the blinds as it looked before
I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion.