WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Narrowed a bit. GGEM still has low 0s widespread. Euro is mid 10s. GFS has some down bit to upper 10s-mid 20s.
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I was going to check some of the CIPS analogs so this is nice to see. Early December analogs often were a bunch of traces…which is what we got.
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WBAL just reported your wrong number!
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Drove from Columbia to Bel Air for non-snow non-holiday reasons. All rain until about the Baltimore/Harford county line where snow started mixing in. Full snow about 1mi north of 95 in HarCo. Accumulation another 1mi past that. 33 in bel air per car thermometer with probably about 0.5”.
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I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO.
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Get that spotter report in!
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You love to see it from @griteater
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Actually like GEFS and EPS a bit more, but i wouldn’t kick the GEPS out of bed. For D15, they all agree very well with the major features.
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Euro op kinda had my scenario from yesterday with a cutter (although it wasn’t a full on cutter) turn into a confluence source and put a follow on storm on a good track.
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Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier.
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Yeah duration of warm ups have been modest. Although amplitude of warmups still outdoes the cold. 3 airports all just barely BN for the month.
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Well you lucky bastards fell backasswards into something nice, didn’t you? Enjoy!
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It will be AN after Xmas, but doesn’t seem like a real multi day torch for our area. If we have a really warm day it’s probably with a cutter and fairly short lived.
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Wife reports beautiful fluffy flakes in Baltimore. I can report sadness in Columbia.
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Mostly rain again now. An occasional flake.
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Mixing on and off with rain and drizzle here. When it gets slightly heavier the snow fraction increases.
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A few snowflakes in Columbia
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Puff puff pass
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An evolution that seems plausible based on long range guidance would be: 1. 1-2 strong cutters wave break during the Dec 29-Jan 2 period. This builds the NAO ridging. 2. They being in a cool, but not cold airmass for Jan 3-5. 3. Their remnants park in the 50/50 zone and provide confluence. 4. Another s/w approaches with a good track and acceptable airmass. 5. Profit
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Euro has snowtv for central MD and NoVA Friday. Temps too warm though for accumulation. That IVT feature looks really nice for Philly area and Jersey…
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Yes. This I like.
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Gfs kinda has this at the end, but I’d expect one or even a couple really wound up cutters around NYD that helps reset the pattern toward a more favorable configuration. If we’re lucky, a proclivity for big precip producers will continue after cold air returns.
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Monday morning low temp forecast: GGEM: low 0s (lol) Euro: low-mid 10s GFS: mid-upper 20s
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GGEM gifts central MD a white Xmas miracle
