WxUSAF
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Damn…3k NAM is 34ish with snow for MBY. Hmmm -
Lock it up!
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Longwave pattern continues to look good through the end of the 12z ensemble runs with BN temps. No defined storm periods after thanksgiving itself, but it doesn’t look bone dry. Shift in phase of the NAO from - to + could be an indicator. That seems to happen late in the runs (mid-late first week of December). GEPS actually has a coastal on D15.
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Totally realistic 10:1 euro snow map gives @mappy and @psuhoffman over 3”. 12z runs seemed to have moved start time back up to 12-14z, so better temps to work with.
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NAM
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Not sure how to link Bluesky posts, but this from Pete is fun @wxmvpete
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At 33 you could accumulate if it comes down heavily for a time. Measure immediately! But the 36-39 IMBY is 100% white rain.
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Yeah. The later start isn’t what we want I think. But freezing level is still around 950mb for most of central MD, so that should support snow reaching the ground in heavier bursts?
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Thunder and lightning in Columbia
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18z is way faster than 12z gfs or euro, which is not what we'd want. Need time to get that cold HP moving into southern Ontario area. Verbatim gives some widespread light snow with the upper low on Black Friday though.
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Tracking flurries and @psuhoffman posting novels in the mid range thread. We’re so back baby
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18z hrrrr also happy for happy hour
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You getting 1” by December 1st gives us a 64.76525% chance of an acceptable winter, right??
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That’s a really cold GEFS run. BN from next Wednesday through the end of the run.
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Good 12z suite for first flakes for many in central/northern MD and NoVA and slushy accumulations for favored cold spots. Positive change seems to be due to the low being farther southwest and closer to us. Hence more directly in the cold core of the low with heavier precipitation. Also helps that precipitation comes in right around 12-14z when temps are coldest.
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I’m so excited for just any kind of real weather. Been a pretty boring stretch!
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@psuhoffman, yeah not sure. My limited understanding is that QBO phase supports or detracts from high latitude blocking frequency. Webb, at least, is clearly NOT expecting a weak strat PV and strongly -AO. Quite the opposite. So not sure how QBO would make that even worse?
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Worth pointing out/reminding that something like the gfs shows with strong highs moving to our north and a broad flat eastern trough is way better for snow chances than something like that GGEM shows, which is a cold upper low diving southward.
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At the moment, coldest day looks a 2-4 days before that chart. EPS still has a robust -EPO/-WPO ridge that extends down the west coast at the end of the run. So I'd still expect cold air around somewhere in the CONUS at that time.
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He lives in northeastern Carroll County. "Can see PA from his house"
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Webb thinks it’s a winter preview look
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Yeah, see my comments in the mid range thread. I definitely believe there will be good cold air in Canada and into the central Plains. Where it goes from there and if cold air and moisture can overlap are 2 big questions. But better to have that to ponder than another mega torch staring us in the face?
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WPO/EPO combo will help ensure that there is some real cold available and not weak-sauce modified crap like we’ve had in recent years. Two big things though to watch: 1. Does all the cold air dump in the west and keep the SE ridge flexed? 2. If the cold air does come east, is it just 2-4 days of dry cold that quickly lifts out when a powerhouse 1014mb low approaches?
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Fun to even be getting non-super convoluted fantasy looks though. We’ll see how things progress next week.
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12z euro at 300-324hrs is jaws music worthy
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