WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Wow, I like it. All in all, I still feel like we're in just ping-pong mode. I was hoping EPS would keep trending positively, but it put us almost exactly back to yesterday 12z. As much as I wish we'd either by in or out, I think this one is going to string us along for awhile more.
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Jan 30, 2010 was showing up on the analogs earlier this week I think for this storm.
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Worse than 0z it seems but it looks better than the 12z GFS through 120 at least (at 500mb). Ugh at 144 though.
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Through 72, euro looks better than yesterday's 12z at least in all the ways I can see. Confluence better, s/w deeper and northern s/w deeper and closer as well. How did last night's 0z look as a reminder?
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EPS seems to be trending. Fingers crossed that continues at 12z. Ukie aside, we do seem to have gotten rid of the WAY far south solutions that don’t get precip north of the Va/NC line in the last day. Consensus right now puts the cutoff between shoveling and tears between RIC and EZF.
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Wettest year on record for BWI after yesterday’s storm. Over 63” now with a month and a half left in the year.
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Final spreadsheet 2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
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Drumroll please! The 2018 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest winner is: @2010 extreme! @2010 extreme won with a total departure of just 9 days, @Cobalt came in 2nd place with 11 days, followed by @yoda with 13 days and @nj2va with 15 days. Our combined average dates resulted in a departure of 32 days.
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First freeze contest is over! I’ll post results later today.
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BWI hit 32 on the intrahour. RIC fell short.
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Yeah could be. Don’t think anyone gets to 32 this week but next week is probably an even money or better chance.
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34 entries this year. Our average values are: DCA: 11/17/18 BWI: 11/3/18 IAD: 10/30/18 RIC: 11/16/18 Tie: 4.03" So a week to 10 days past climo for the most part. DCA value is close to climo I believe. Looks like next week has the first legit threat, particularly for the non-DCA locations. IAD has 1.02" of rain to date for reference. 2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
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DCA: 11/24 BWI: 11/8 IAD: 11/8 RIC: 11/17 Tie: 4.7
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DCA has gone into December I know. Don’t know about the other 3.
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This is my current thinking.
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Although we're suffering through endless summer and tropical moistness, we should, in theory, be only weeks away from the first freeze in our region (minus DCA, which may never have a freeze again). You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F at these locations: DCA: BWI: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker: October rainfall at IAD. Lowest total departure wins! This thread will lock at midnight September 30th.
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My hands have been very dry.
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Maybe it did and I just forgot. But I remember having no issues driving to work.
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I thought 3/25/13 was ridiculous. I had ~6", nothing on the streets, didn't even get a day off work, and it was all gone by lunch.
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My WAG is IAD and BWI at least get a fraction of an inch in February and then all 3 airports get 3" of slop overnight in mid-March that melts by 10am. It's like 12-13 but even worse.
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I think that's the idea, yes. So low southern ice and the ridiculously low Arctic ice gives you that insane figure.
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Ooof. Holy shi-t.
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Saw on Twitter that the IAD sounding had 1.8" of precipitable water, which sets the all-time Dec-Apr record.
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What's the most anomalous single day departure on record for the airports? We're looking at a +30 or so for xmas eve?
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New paper linking the cold winter of 13-14 with the warm central Pacific SST anomaly. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL063083/full
