WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Let’s goooooo Texans!
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NAM wins this one. This is what it’s good for.
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They will likely have already beaten most of the playoff teams by the time they get there
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My son and I left just after halftime. He was soaked and cold. Rain soaked through 4 layers. The snow was mixing in during the heavier bursts. Total slush meteors. Probably saw them only because I was like 200 feet above field level
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Snow mixing in at ravens game:
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3k NAM looks pretty good for snow showers tomorrow and maybe accumulation for northern 1/3rd of the subforum in MD
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Hope you’re right. Non deluge would be much preferred.
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Monday and Wednesday could have snow tv for some in the region. Friday/Saturday storm would be interesting with a better airmass or January climo. After that, hard to say, but doesn’t look like a shut the drapes for weeks for sure.
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No, euro actually has snow showers for the far NW areas. WEDNESDAY
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Gfs has snow showers early Wednesday.
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That’s a REALLY nice look on the Eps long range. Probably best I’ve seen in the last 5-7 days. Seems what the models are most unsure about is where that NPAC trough sets up. Aleutian low or GOA. Difference between them produces a nice +PNA or a Pac puke flood. I imagine a lot of that is due to them having trouble with the tropical forcing, but understanding that is beyond my pay grade.
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Makes sense whoever you are
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Does it? He never posts a lot, it is thanksgiving weekend and he just posted 3 hours ago about East Asian mountain torque. I know last nights eps looked pretty rough after D10. 12z Eps looks nice at D10, so I’m guessing it probably looks promising for at least D11-12, but haven’t seen any of D10-15 to be sure.
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MJO forecasts are never great. There’s a bias to kill waves off into the COD when in reality most propagate through. What’s happening now though is the +IOD has generated a strong standing wave in the West Indian Ocean (phase 8-1) that’s confusing the MJO forecasts. Combine that with the cooler than normal waters near the maritime continent means that the early MJO wave death predictions actually aren’t crazy.
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Should be bullseyed by Sunday
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Ooh..pretty ULL pass there! ^^
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Euro snow map looks a lot like the GGEM and ukie. Looking better that the northern 1/3rd of the subforum could be measuring Monday evening. I’m gonna do my best to slant stick 0.1”.
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Deform band? How’s the ULL look for us? I’m resigned to the WAA probably just being some pingers for N MD before the rain.
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Is the ukie snow from the ULL? I’m getting a bit less skeptical of some snow from that, particularly for @mappy and other jackpotville residents.
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Last 2 runs of the GGEM have snow Monday with the ULL for MD. Gfs has precip but the boundary layer is warm verbatim.
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No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation.
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EPS more bullish on the +PNA than the GEFS, but GEFS seems to be moving that way. Any +AO really does look quite brief as the PV sloshes back to our side of the pole.
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Euro has 5 sleet pellets to start for N MD. But GEFS looks nice for the 2nd week of December.
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Pushes the confluence associated with the 50-50 farther west so it holds the cold air in a bit more.
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The ULL generates precip, but the boundary layer is just torched. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if snow mixed in, but the temps need major work. Having the low speed up again to bring the WAA precip back in Saturday isn’t crazy. Only talking like 12-18 hours earlier.
