WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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At least these hard freezes are keeping most of the trees and flowers in check. This weekend will give them all a harsh reminder that it’s not really spring yet.
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Many robins are year round residents in the area and don’t migrate.
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My tulips look 7-10 days away from bloom.
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Ack, meant 2016-17. Had 6.8” in 16-17 and 13.8” in 12-13 largely thanks to that mid March snow that was gone by 11am.
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Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much.
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Suffice it to say, the 18z GFS working out would change my outlook on the winter substantially.
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Like everything about it screams classic I95 snowstorm and it’s rain to Scranton. I guess maybe that primary low starts too far N and erodes the mid levels before the coastal, but damn.
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I hope I’m sufficiently cold
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Well said @psuhoffman. At best this weekend will be some front end snow/mix before rain. That’s fine, it was almost certain to not be pure snow. But big possibilities rolling into the following week.
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That D9-10 look on the GEFS and EPS is KUish.
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^looks a lot like the Eps. I said just the other day the phase 7 composite looked a lot like the progs minus the ao and NAO. Well...
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Who the hell gave up on it?
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IF, giant IF, we get a major strat disruption in early-mid Feb, that would support winter hanging on into March when potentially tropical forcing could be in warm phases by mid-late Feb. Lots of wild speculation there lol
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Strat shenanigans later?
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This looks like the GEFS over the pole with the EPS PNA ridge. NAO is off either way, but in general a pretty decent match.
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I like the longwave pattern on the GEFS a lot. -EPO/-AO plus some Southwest ridging. And very active storm track. Very nice.
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If the small possibility of cold/dry in 15 days is too much to bear for you, you could always just look at the 18z GFS for next weekend. You'll feel better.
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Looks like brief snow/mix to rain. Highs not in a great position for cad.
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Ensembles have already been clueing in on the 19th and low and behold that’s what the Op throws out. And snow-ice-rain is a very plausible outcome in the longwave pattern late next week.
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I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there.
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No, going to be some mixey storms ahead most likely as the trough carves it’s way eastward successively after each cutter. Best chance for an all snow solution before the last week of January is probably a weak overrunning storm or a follow up wave to a cutter with a perfect track.
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Euro holds off rain until after the game mostly. Gfs probably brings it in during the 2nd half
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I’ll take that. Next week could be a lot of fun between storm tracking and preparing for the AFC championship game. I hope Eps throws us a bone toward what the GEFS was suggesting for the high latitudes. Either way, I’m getting more encouraged about where we’re headed for the last week of January and hopefully beyond.
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GEFS is active AF from the 17th until the end of the run. I bet most of the precip is rain, but seeing pressing arctic air from the north with a firehouse of moisture coming in from the southern plains probably will make EJ tingly.
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Sometimes it pastes as “rich text”. You don’t want that. Arctic air is a crazy thing
