WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Sun angle kicking in. My solar panels are producing at the highest rate since early November.
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Nope
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Even with the brief heavy rain this morning, major short-range QPF bust on this storm from the major globals, Euro first among them. Like nearly 2" too wet.
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So sorry to hear that, @mappy. I hope she recovers quickly.
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Game and halftime show both 100 times better than last year
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This winter needs more shakira
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Ack, meant 2016-17. Had 6.8” in 16-17 and 13.8” in 12-13 largely thanks to that mid March snow that was gone by 11am.
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Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much.
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Suffice it to say, the 18z GFS working out would change my outlook on the winter substantially.
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Like everything about it screams classic I95 snowstorm and it’s rain to Scranton. I guess maybe that primary low starts too far N and erodes the mid levels before the coastal, but damn.
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I hope I’m sufficiently cold
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Well said @psuhoffman. At best this weekend will be some front end snow/mix before rain. That’s fine, it was almost certain to not be pure snow. But big possibilities rolling into the following week.
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That D9-10 look on the GEFS and EPS is KUish.
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^looks a lot like the Eps. I said just the other day the phase 7 composite looked a lot like the progs minus the ao and NAO. Well...
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Who the hell gave up on it?
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IF, giant IF, we get a major strat disruption in early-mid Feb, that would support winter hanging on into March when potentially tropical forcing could be in warm phases by mid-late Feb. Lots of wild speculation there lol
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Strat shenanigans later?
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This looks like the GEFS over the pole with the EPS PNA ridge. NAO is off either way, but in general a pretty decent match.
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I like the longwave pattern on the GEFS a lot. -EPO/-AO plus some Southwest ridging. And very active storm track. Very nice.
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If the small possibility of cold/dry in 15 days is too much to bear for you, you could always just look at the 18z GFS for next weekend. You'll feel better.
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Looks like brief snow/mix to rain. Highs not in a great position for cad.
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Ensembles have already been clueing in on the 19th and low and behold that’s what the Op throws out. And snow-ice-rain is a very plausible outcome in the longwave pattern late next week.
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I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there.
