WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Strat shenanigans later?
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This looks like the GEFS over the pole with the EPS PNA ridge. NAO is off either way, but in general a pretty decent match.
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I like the longwave pattern on the GEFS a lot. -EPO/-AO plus some Southwest ridging. And very active storm track. Very nice.
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If the small possibility of cold/dry in 15 days is too much to bear for you, you could always just look at the 18z GFS for next weekend. You'll feel better.
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Looks like brief snow/mix to rain. Highs not in a great position for cad.
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Ensembles have already been clueing in on the 19th and low and behold that’s what the Op throws out. And snow-ice-rain is a very plausible outcome in the longwave pattern late next week.
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I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there.
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Mid Atlantic 2019/2020 season snow totals
WxUSAF replied to Midlo Snow Maker's topic in Mid Atlantic
3.5" after 2.3" yesterday -
No, going to be some mixey storms ahead most likely as the trough carves it’s way eastward successively after each cutter. Best chance for an all snow solution before the last week of January is probably a weak overrunning storm or a follow up wave to a cutter with a perfect track.
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Euro holds off rain until after the game mostly. Gfs probably brings it in during the 2nd half
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I’ll take that. Next week could be a lot of fun between storm tracking and preparing for the AFC championship game. I hope Eps throws us a bone toward what the GEFS was suggesting for the high latitudes. Either way, I’m getting more encouraged about where we’re headed for the last week of January and hopefully beyond.
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GEFS is active AF from the 17th until the end of the run. I bet most of the precip is rain, but seeing pressing arctic air from the north with a firehouse of moisture coming in from the southern plains probably will make EJ tingly.
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Sometimes it pastes as “rich text”. You don’t want that. Arctic air is a crazy thing
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Just paste the link to the tweet
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I think the MJO gets to phase 8. I think question is whether it gets to phase 1. Long range MJO plots like Roundy’s show it getting into 8 with subsidence over the maritime continent. As far as sensible weather, getting major ice/mix storm vibes from the period after the 17th. Lots of cold arctic air to the north but with SE ridge tendencies.
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Well if the Carolinas can score...then I'll take that chance for us Same. If the long range longwave pattern is correct, doesn’t look like suppression is a risk.
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Neat trivia from Webb. Wonder how that stacks up for us. I think this MJO forecast makes much more sense than those that kill it off in Phase 6.
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GFS op wanted nothing to do with the GEFS in early-mid December when it was trying to advertise Strat PV disruption. Interesting that it's now hinting at a Strat PV split later this month.
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Euro holds off the rain for after the Ravens game. GFS brings it in for the game. Go Euro!
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Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline.
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MJO forecasts always have a bias of killing the wave off too quickly. That strong of a wave with steady eastward progression won’t suddenly die in phase 6.
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Lots of 1 step forward 1 step back on the long range ensembles. It’s clear nothings happening for awhile. Hope for a Feb 15 level turnaround.
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GEFS goes ape sh-t on the Scand ridge and starts around D10 so not too far out in fantasyland. EPO also teaches poleward through AK. Still not a great pattern but could be close to a workable one by the end if it worked out that way.
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I had 7.2” from that event
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I had just over 3” from that.
