WxUSAF

12/11: 0.2" Losing to @C.A.P.E. and @H2O, how embarrassing.

It’s not just sleet. It gives freezing rain like a 20:1 ratio.

Something’s really funky with TT’s snow maps in the mid and long range.

BWI: 20.3” DCA: 14.7” IAD: 22.5” RIC: 12.1” SBY: 9.8”

You already busted at Richmond by three orders of magnitude

Bragger

I’ll definitely have an entry but want to know how much November snow we have first

The 2019 First Freeze Contest has come to an end! DCA hit 32 early this morning. @yodaand @mappy have tied! Both had a departure of 14 total days. But this is America! The tiebreaker this year was summed total October precipitation at all 4 airports. @mappy went with a continuation of our dry September and only forecasted 8" total. @yoda went a little wetter with 12.26". But the real total smashed both those numbers, with 23.5" recorded. In this case, close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and the Mid-Atlantic first freeze tiebreaker! Which means @yoda wins by tiebreaker! @mappy obviously comes in 2nd place! @MN Transplant, who unfortunately had the poor luck of trying to rely on DCA to hit 32F before midnight last night ties for 3rd place with me, your humble contest organizer, with a total departure of 15 days. @Rhino16 rounds out the top 5 with a departure of 17 days. 2019 First Freeze Contest.xlsx

Chin up, DCA will probably stay above freezing the whole night somehow.

Appreciate your thoughts. Hope you’re wrong, but appreciate your thoughts nonetheless. Certainly impossible to deny that the SE ridge has been dominant this year and that winter +NAO has been a decadal trend. What do your analogs show for November? Did they suggest the cold pattern that seems likely to last the first 2-3 weeks of the month at least.

RIC hitting today changes things. If DCA hits Saturday, @yoda and @mappy would tie. If DCA hits Friday, @MN Transplant wins outright.

@biodhokie and @tplbge tied for the lead with a departure of 2 days, with @biodhokie hitting BWI exactly. @Stormpc next with a departure of 3 days. If DCA and RIC hit next Saturday as looks likely with the forecast, @biodhokie would win with @yoda coming in 2nd.

Found another link: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_table_mesodyn.cgi?stn=KIAD&unit=0&time=LOCAL&year1=2014&month1=4&day1=07&hour1=08&hours=24&past=0&order=1 Low of 30 at IAD, 32 at BWI, 35 at RIC, and 37 at DCA.

Woo!

Weather.gov pages I use to look at the airport obs stopped updating around midnight. Weird. Anyone have another link?

Ready and waiting. I bet IAD and BWI hit tonight or Monday morning . Maybe RIC too. DCA probably waits until next weekend .

Ggem and gfs just casually 17F apart for Saturday morning. Ggem has bwi down to 26, gfs at 43. Last nights euro was 35.

You’re tied for the lead!!

Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.

Those in the know know that RIC usually freezes around BWIs date, not DCAs.

Yeah, I've been looking ahead and forgot to pay much attention to this weekend. Maybe IAD too? 3k NAM would suggest so.

Unlocking so we can chat about freezes as this gets more plausible

3 more hours! Get your entries in!

BWI: 11/3 RIC: 11/3 IAD: 10/27 DCA: 11/16 Tie: 10”

Bump. A few days left.