WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Nice 6-12” on the 12z gfs. Oh yeah, winter’s going to go REAL well with the new gfs
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Yeah, first week probably ends on the slightly cool side. I think first freeze for the non-DCA sights is a good bet. But after, probably goes mild again if MJO keeps progressing and PV keeps consolidating. This next week is a sneaky torch. This mornings low is already +15F from normal lows.
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If NAO <= 0 then NAO = +5
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I think you’re both talking past each other. Most recent run did a big flip to +AO/NAO. Older runs were major -AO/NAO.
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Going to get ugly if this gfs cold bias leads to constant D8+ teasing like I’m afraid it will.
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Euro and GGEM slower yet again to drag the front through late next week. Now both send things out in 2 pieces. Gfs was still catching up their old solution. Which also means the cold air is more and more modified by the time it gets here. All 3 still indicate some reinforcing cold shots aimed a bit closer to us after in early Novie, but damn the SE ridge just never wants to die this year.
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You’re tied for the lead!!
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Looks like it will get chilly after Halloween, but gfs clearly has a major cold bias in the long range. Wait until things get inside D5, and show up in the euro, before getting confident.
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I’m totally fine with it amidst equally chilly BN departures. Except we have permanent +5F departures basically now.
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Probably a couple days with +10-15F departures
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Euro is way slower and torchy, GGEM in the middle. Shocker.
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USDA fields north of greenbelt radiated well as always. Lots of frost. Car thermometer said 37.
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Low of 40. No frost in my yard, but some of the neighbors roofs had a bit of frost.
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Am I missing something with this frost advisory? Guidance looks like maybe near 40?
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Euro and GGEM pretty close lately and in today’s 12z. Not sure if that is coincidence or if the GGEM has gotten better lately. @high risk? For sensible weather, that means both give the big cold dump out west next week which modifies as it moves toward us.
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Euro has moved a bit more progressive on the weekend storm, but the gfs cave is basically complete at 12z.
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Good twitter thread from HM and others this evening. This good tidbit:
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0.61” daily total. 3.27” for the month to date
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Well, gfs not folding yet as of 18z for the weekend and next week.
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It is, but a bit more progressive than previously. Ggem looks similar.
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We’ll see what the euro throws out at 12z, but some stark differences between euro and gfs starting this weekend. Euro going cutoff low happy? Gfs too progressive? Hard to say when both models are maybe playing into their biases. Gfs solution looks way more fun, so I’m rooting for it.
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0.05” of drizzle already
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My oak turned brown and has been dropping due to the drought. Some maples are peaking, some look like late September, and some are half bare. Stupid sycamore is half bare.
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Yup meant to say this too. Probably ~10 days to peak.
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Euro much more in the NAM camp than the GFS for precip amounts tomorrow. 0.5-1” for the metro corridor, but much less for @C.A.P.E..
