WxUSAF

12z gfs says what’s up

October temp departures: BWI: +6.1 IAD: +4.5 DCA: +4.6

Ready and waiting. I bet IAD and BWI hit tonight or Monday morning . Maybe RIC too. DCA probably waits until next weekend .

1.1” for the entire storm starting Wednesday. Last night from 930-11pm was legit. House felt like it was lifting off. Around 6” for October. Quite a reversal in the last few weeks.

Thunder

Had a really loud bang here. Transformer going out? Gunshot? Halloween shenanigans?

Good to see you, friend. Seems like this winter could feature many of the things we’ve seen a lot this decade. -EPO driven cold shots, predominantly +NAO, variable AO, and moisture around. So like most winters this decade, we probably will get a lot of nickels and dimes and maybe if we’re lucky a Susan B. Anthony or two.

Well he loves snow and baseball so I’ve done one thing right

My 9yo son just pulled the term “rain-wrapped tornado” out of his ass. No idea where he got that from but #prouddad.

Until January when we want snow to stick

Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but I don’t think a few pics of sunshine at 4 PM in late October are going to do much to destabilize the atmosphere.

Euro dropping Barney’s hammer next weekend

20F temp drop with the front on the NAM. Says first freeze for IAD and BWI is Saturday morning.

Cohen says snowcover advance index supports -AO! Here we go!!! #sarcasm

My tulip magnolia went from green to 75% bare in under 10 days. Probably totally bare by tomorrow.

Yeah we’ve really closed that deficit in the last 2 weeks.

Euro had coldest temps Saturday morning and Monday morning.

Ggem and gfs just casually 17F apart for Saturday morning. Ggem has bwi down to 26, gfs at 43. Last nights euro was 35.

I don’t think you can use old analogs (pre-2000? But certainly pre-1990) without accounting for the background climate warming. Maybe they did that, but when i see these old analogs I get skeptical.

Looks like the 6-8pm window should be good in HoCo. Assuming no major changes. NAM is very chilly for Friday. Caveat that it usually runs too cold.

Like 3 days ago...

I changed the title...

FWIW, 0z GEFS keeps the cross polar flow HL look throughout the entire run's mid-long range, where yesterday's runs broke it down late. Very much EPO/WPO/PNA driven with the AO/NAO going very positive late. EPS has the AO/NAO more neutral at D10. Eta...6z GEFS just loaded on TT and it's pretty similar.

I think it’s more that long range ensembles typically show a pattern washed out in space and time, where there’s typically more variability, especially in winter, due to storm systems that aren’t seen in long range ensemble means. As you get closer, the ensembles resolve that variability. For example, next week still looks BN overall, but it was looking like wall-to-wall cold a couple days ago. Now you’re seeing the ensembles pick up on a brief warming around next Wednesday due to SW flow ahead of the next cold front. That said, the gfs and GEFS definitely have a cold bias in the long range, and there’s also a tendency to overdo HL blocking. I’m buying the cold look more right now because the Eps is very bullish on cross polar flow.

Certainly a very cold look for next weekend on the ensembles. I’d wait until this weekend before being comfortable with how cold that ends up. Colder looks in the long range tend to modify with time.