WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I’ve seen worse, but looks like stale cold air which won’t work in November (barely works in January). What’s nice about the Monday/Tuesday threat is a very fresh and cold airmass.
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Euro weaker and slower for the early next week event. Verbatim clips the eastern shore and Cape Cod. Still has the event either way. Damn cold period coming up.
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Yeah it’s had it for 2 runs. Gfs for a few now also.
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Gfs with a nice little snow event next Monday. Hoffman even gets fringed. Nothing like cold powder in mid November.
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He actually responded on Twitter to my question about the linear trend and linked a paper he wrote in 2012 on that idea. Haven’t read it yet.
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Wave 1/2 just refers to wave number 1/2. So a wavenumber one means that there is one wave crest and one valley as you go around a latitude circle. Wavenumber 1 typically has more amplitude in the troposphere and stratosphere. Wavenumber 1 forcing typically displaces the strat vortex off the pole, while wavenumber 2 deforms and can split the vortex. A combination of both is typically needed for a total vortex disruption.
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We had one last year around New Years, which seems like an ideal time to maximize peak climo, and it didn’t propagate downward and substantially change the tropospheric AO. I wouldn’t want a SSW in November or most of December, but anytime after that is good probably.
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The only thing I see in Cohen’s plot is what looks like a pretty clear upward linear trend over the last 40 years. Whether that’s a climate response or something else, I don’t know. I don’t think there’s been a comparable trend in mean winter AO state.
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Just checked out the free euro maps on pivotal. Wow, what a game changer.
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We don’t need a SSW anytime soon. Just keep the strat vortex weak and keep beating on it and that’s fine.
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RIC hitting today changes things. If DCA hits Saturday, @yoda and @mappy would tie. If DCA hits Friday, @MN Transplant wins outright.
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That was a very nice score to wake up and see
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STOP turning the damn ball over
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5:30pm. : 48F and dark
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Happy hour suppresses the Friday storm even more, but has something sort of similar to the Euro D9. Doesnt drop much snow verbatim, but similar idea.
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Ugh, Vinateri cundiffed it.
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I just hope when a pattern relax happens that it’s a reload and doesn’t flip back to big SE ridge. But hopefully this is the dominant background forcing (IO forcing the MJO in favorable phases, ENSO, QBO, etc) showing it’s hand.
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Lots of Barney either way.
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I imagine he’s trolling but hard to tell with him sometimes. Sort of like his views on climate.
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GFS with high temps 30F below normal in 10 days. Lol I’ll take the over. As for snow, I consider any non accumulating snow that is noticeable to everyone, and not just us squinting at microscopic flakes, to be great in November. Measurable is a total win.
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Raked about 12 bags of leaves today. Most of the leaves of my trees are down, so the rest of my raking will be my lazy neighbors’ leaves.
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I assume that 1 EPS member posted is the only one that gives us snow since the mean is like 0.1-0.5” for DC and north?
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Are we back to the same cycle of cold November that turns into Torchmas yet again?
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@biodhokie and @tplbge tied for the lead with a departure of 2 days, with @biodhokie hitting BWI exactly. @Stormpc next with a departure of 3 days. If DCA and RIC hit next Saturday as looks likely with the forecast, @biodhokie would win with @yoda coming in 2nd.
