WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Is it publicly available?
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Last week’s gfs only missed the hours below freezing by 80.
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DCA high of 39. Didn’t think they’d stay in the 30s. Impressive.
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Absolutely. If we see a look like that after December 15-20, then I’d be honking. Before that is pretty iffy, because that’s a seasonable to 5F below sort of look. Seasonable temps to 5 BN in early December are still above freezing for 18 hours a day or so.
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And it keeps chickening out on breaking down ridging in western Canada. It’s not a super cold look, but a consistently BN look with storm chances. Hope we see that into winter.
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GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run
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Good to keep in mind regarding the strat vortex split/warming/disruption is that last years was advertised and steadily pushed back for awhile, but it did happen eventually. And it doesn’t say at all how it will impact the troposphere on our side of the pole.
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BWI is a tie per Tony Pann
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IAD 19 BWI 22 DCA 26 Havent checked if any of those are records
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I just saw the 324hr EPS posted elsewhere. Yeah, that's a real nice look for a winter storm, just maybe not in late November.
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Mid Atlantic 2019/2020 season snow totals
WxUSAF replied to Midlo Snow Maker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Bragger -
Almost a deck dusting!
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Real flurries in Columbia!!! I saw them and caught them on my tongue!
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Haven't seen the EPS past D10, but I like the evolution of the pattern on the GEFS and the GEPS. Keep that AO negative and we'll be in good shape. Doesn't look as cold, but still probably seasonal on balance after D7.
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My son saw a few flakes in Columbia around 5pm and I think I saw a few on the way home.
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CWG forecast out https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/12/washington-dc-winter-outlook-near-average-snowfall-with-somewhat-milder-than-normal-temperatures/
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BWI will have a T today officially
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Flurries in Columbia per my wife
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Overnight GEFS pummels the strat vortex with strong wave 1 hits. Not far off SSW territory actually. @tombo82685 mentioned on that other forum that there’s some historic linkage between the warmer MJO phases and SSWs. We’ll probably be in those phases in early December.
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Can it snow at 50F? Asking for a friend
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Staff meeting at flying dog Friday at 6. You’re buying.
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@psuhoffman that’s a nice look on the Eps. I like how it’s been fairly insistent on keeping the PNA positive. That’s definitely a look that could produce.
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WBAL shows the RPM on the weather segment. Looks nothing like any other guidance. But snowy!
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The consistent Aleutian trough and Scandinavian ridge is nice for sure. Blue ball near the pole less so, but it’s way out there. Verbatim that’s a pattern that could certainly give us snow with a few more weeks of climo cooling temperatures.
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