WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Is the ukie snow from the ULL? I’m getting a bit less skeptical of some snow from that, particularly for @mappy and other jackpotville residents.
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Last 2 runs of the GGEM have snow Monday with the ULL for MD. Gfs has precip but the boundary layer is warm verbatim.
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No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation.
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Midnight high! Getting prepped for winter.
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@Bob Chill just cashed in the entire subforum's We're Due Index for a quick trip across the GW Bridge. Thanks for nothing, Bob. See you in January 2023.
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EPS more bullish on the +PNA than the GEFS, but GEFS seems to be moving that way. Any +AO really does look quite brief as the PV sloshes back to our side of the pole.
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Euro has 5 sleet pellets to start for N MD. But GEFS looks nice for the 2nd week of December.
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Pushes the confluence associated with the 50-50 farther west so it holds the cold air in a bit more.
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The ULL generates precip, but the boundary layer is just torched. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if snow mixed in, but the temps need major work. Having the low speed up again to bring the WAA precip back in Saturday isn’t crazy. Only talking like 12-18 hours earlier.
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12z gfs is a smidge faster than 6z, but need more to recover a chance of WAA snow.
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What’s hurting us on this weekends storm (front end WAA chance) per the overnight runs is that the storm has slowed down a fair bit. The timing of last nights 18z gfs was sort of perfect, but it kept slowing down at 0 and 6z. Euro shows it too. That lets what meager cold air we have more time to retreat. Plus the WAA precip itself is looking skimpier.
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He’s never predicted below average snowfall in the last 6 years. Very on brand.
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JB2 is all in on winter. Not overly surprising. https://www.justinweather.com/2019/11/26/my-winter-outlook-2019-to-2020-support-for-above-average-snow/
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Happy hour offering 2-for-1 specials on the @showmethesnow storm. Or is it my storm? I said I liked 3-5 December like a week ago.
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I’d be thrilled with 1” of snow. I’m still skeptical, but I’m starting to believe it’s possible. Let’s see a run like this on Thursday’s happy hour when we’re all drunk and fat and I’ll get my hopes up.
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Well it is until Sunday, then still does the capture and deform. Just a bit farther NE then 12z. Seems to me the front end of the storm is getting pretty well narrowed on options (although I still expect we’ll end up on the outside of WAA snow), but the back end and coastal transfer is poorly constrained.
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I like the timing of this run. WAA snow/sleet comes in after dark Saturday. Better chance to get on the board.
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Euro farther south with the transfer and a good ULL track, but still nowhere near the gfs solution.
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Euro a bit skimpier with the WAA precip than past runs, but does give many some Saturday afternoon snowtv
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Stop trying to excite me @Bob Chill! I’m trying to calm down by thinking very un-snowy thoughts like the euro showing the transfer over Portland ME.
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Give me the GEFS hr132-138 at peak climo and I would be FULLY...um...ready for snow? 990mb off OC? Drool.
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Ggem says no, but closer than 0z. Loses mid level temps before the WAA precip arrives. Gfs a smidge colder, so it’s frozen precip. Ggem then takes the ULL through PA so we get some backside flurries/rain showers.
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I think there’s going to be some bizarre divergence this winter between the gfs and GEFS because of the dynamical core differences. We’ve already seen that a bit and we’re continuing to see it in the strat. I’m really not sure how to interpret any differences either.
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Sober reminder here that everyone should have very low/no expectations for this storm. It’s way too goofy of a setup. Plus the gfs long range cold bias.
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lol gfs is such a tease. ULL captures the surface low just in right spot, temps crash, and @mappy gets pasted.
